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A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution

机译：HIV / AIDS动态演变的随机模型

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摘要

This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as denned by CD4 levels, from a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in state j after a time t given that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in state i; that she/he will survive up to a time f, given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in the starting state up to time f; that she/he reach stage j of the disease in the next transition, if the previous state was i and no state change occurred up to time t. The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users.
机译：本文从宏观的角度，通过同质半马尔可夫随机过程，分析了CD4水平所界定的HIV / AIDS动态演变。已经获得了大量结果，包括以下条件概率：受感染的患者在时间t（假设在时间0（开始时间）进入状态i）将在时间t之后进入状态j；给定起始状态，她/她将生存到时间f；她/他将继续保持在开始状态直到时间f；如果先前的状态为i并且在时间t之前没有发生状态变化，则他/他将在下一个转换阶段到达疾病的j期。所考虑的免疫状态基于CD4计数，我们的数据涉及从766名HIV阳性静脉内吸毒者中选择的患者。

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