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Regional sensitivity analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on failure probability

机译：失败概率的偶然和认知不确定性的区域敏感性分析

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摘要

To analyze the effects of specific regions of the aleatory and epistemic uncertain variables on the failure probability, a regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) technique called contribution to failure probability (CFP) plot is developed in this paper. This RSA technique can detect the important aleatory and epistemic uncertain variables, and also measure the contribution of specific regions of these important input variables to failure probability. When computing the proposed CFP, the aleatory and epistemic uncertain variables are modeled by random and interval variables, respectively. Then based on the hybrid probabilistic and interval model (HPIM) and the basic probability assignments in evidence theory, the failure probability of the structure with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties can be obtained through a successive construction of the second-level limit state function and the corresponding reliability analysis. Kriging method is used to establish the surrogate model of the second-level limit state function to improve the computational efficiency. Two practical examples are employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed RSA technique, and the efficiency and accuracy of the established kriging-based solution.
机译：为了分析偶然性和认知不确定性变量的特定区域对失效概率的影响，本文开发了一种区域敏感性分析（RSA）技术，称为失效概率贡献（CFP）图。 RSA技术可以检测重要的偶然性和认知不确定性变量，还可以测量这些重要输入变量的特定区域对失败概率的贡献。在计算建议的CFP时，偶然性和认知不确定性变量分别由随机变量和区间变量建模。然后基于混合概率和区间模型（HPIM）以及证据理论中的基本概率分配，可以通过依次构造二级极限状态函数和相应的极限状态函数，获得具有不确定和认知不确定性的结构的失效概率。可靠性分析。利用克里格法建立了二级极限状态函数的替代模型，提高了计算效率。使用两个实际示例来测试所提出的RSA技术的有效性，以及已建立的基于克里金法的解决方案的效率和准确性。

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