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首页> 外文期刊>Mining Technology : IMM Transactions section A >Mine design selection under uncertainty
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Mine design selection under uncertainty

机译：不确定性下的矿山设计选择

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摘要

Frequently, alternative technically feasible mine designs and production scenarios are available for decision makers to consider. The selection of a mine design is then based on estimating net present values of all possible, technically feasible mine plans so as to select the one with the maximum value. Conventional risk and sensitivity analysis are also performed as decision supporting tools. Given the multiple market and geological uncertainties associated with mining investments, as well as the management flexibility to respond to new future information, the sufficiency of conventional economic analysis tools based on the static discounted cash flow analysis may be questionable. This paper proposes a multicriteria ranking system for selection between alternative mine designs under uncertainty. The system is based on integrating multiple market and geological uncertainties as well as the operating flexibility to revise the ultimate pit limits using a Monte Carlo based real options valuation (ROV) model. To compare the methods, the article applies the proposed system, along with other three ranking methods, to rank possible mine designs for a copper and a gold mine. It has been found that, in addition to the higher value of the mine design selected by the proposed system, its average mis-ranking is significantly lower than the other three ranking methods. For the copper mine, a reduction in the average mis-ranking of 37-58% could be achieved when using the proposed ranking system, while for the gold mine case, a higher reduction of 51-64% in the average mis-ranking is obtained.
机译：通常，可供决策者考虑使用其他技术上可行的矿山设计和生产方案。然后，基于对所有可能的，技术上可行的矿山计划的净现值的估算，来选择矿山设计，以便选择具有最大值的矿山计划。传统的风险和敏感性分析也可以用作决策支持工具。考虑到与矿业投资相关的多个市场和地质不确定性，以及管理层对新的未来信息做出响应的灵活性，基于静态折现现金流量分析的传统经济分析工具的充分性可能会令人怀疑。本文提出了一种多标准排序系统，用于在不确定性下的备选矿山设计之间进行选择。该系统基于整合多个市场和地质不确定性以及使用基于蒙特卡洛的实物期权估值（ROV）模型来修改最终矿坑极限的操作灵活性。为了比较这些方法，本文将提出的系统与其他三种排名方法一起应用，以对铜矿和金矿的可能矿山设计进行排名。已经发现，除了所提出的系统所选择的矿山设计具有更高的价值之外，其平均错位明显低于其他三种排序方法。对于铜矿，使用建议的排名系统可以将平均错误排名减少37-58％，而对于金矿，平均错误排名则可以减少51-64％获得。

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