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A case study in selecting optimal number of trials in Bayesian decision making

机译：贝叶斯决策中选择最佳试验次数的案例研究

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This educational paper presents an illustration of choosing the optimal sample size within the framework of Bayesian Decision Theory. Using a somewhat artificial but entertaining example (electing an optimal number of dates for a marriage decision), it provides a tutorial for the challenging problem of decision making and walks the reader through various steps needed to be accomplished: formalizing the loss function, choosing priors for the parameters of interest, and computing the posterior expected loss for either of the two possible actions (to marry or not). Finally the optimal sample size (number of dates) is selected as a minimizer for the Bayes risk, evaluated (via simulations) under the assumption that the action with smallest posterior expected loss would be taken.
机译：该教育论文介绍了在贝叶斯决策理论框架内选择最佳样本量的例证。通过使用一个有点人为但有趣的示例（为婚姻决定选择最合适的日期），它为决策中的挑战性问题提供了教程，并引导读者完成需要完成的各个步骤：形式化损失函数，选择先验条件感兴趣的参数，并计算两个可能的动作（结婚或不结婚）的后验预期损失。最后，选择最佳样本量（日期数）作为贝叶斯风险的最小化指标，并在假定采取最小后验预期损失的假设下（通过模拟）进行评估。

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