...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards Review >Time-Dependent Route Choice in Hurricane Evacuation
【24h】

Time-Dependent Route Choice in Hurricane Evacuation

机译：飓风疏散中随时间变化的路线选择

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In this research, the factors affecting route choice in hurricane evacuation are investigated. Two hypotheses are tested. First, it is hypothesized that contrary to common practice where travel time is considered the sole or main determinant of route choice, other variables such as familiarity with the route, availability of fuel and shelter, road type, and accessibility of the route have an effect on an evacuees' route choice as well. The second hypothesis is that as time passes and storm conditions change, the impact each variable has on route choice changes. That is, it is hypothesized that the importance evacuees assign to the factors determining route choice is not static but varies with time. The logit structure was used for modeling the choice process and stated choice data previously collected from the New Orleans area on hypothetical storms was used to calibrate the model. The study found that accessibility to a route, familiarity with the route, road type, length of a route, and availability of services (gas stations and hotels) had an effect on evacuation route choice. The magnitude of the coefficients of perceived service, accessibility, and distance differed among those evacuating in the first half of the evacuation period versus those that evacuated in the second half, but coefficients of road type were not significantly different between the two time intervals. Observed traffic count data from hurricane Katrina evacuation were used to validate the model. Comparison of traffic volumes predicted by the model with actual traffic volumes from hurricane Katrina shows error percentages of 17.5, 0.01, and 28% of error for volumes on I-10, I-55, and US-61 respectively. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
机译：在这项研究中，研究了飓风疏散中影响路线选择的因素。测试了两个假设。首先，假设与通常将行驶时间视为路线选择的唯一或主要决定因素的惯常做法相反，其他变量（例如，对路线的熟悉程度，燃料和住房的可用性，道路类型以及路线的可达性）会产生影响在撤离人员的路线选择上也是如此。第二个假设是，随着时间的流逝和风暴条件的变化，每个变量对路线选择的影响也会发生变化。即，假设撤离者分配给确定路线选择的因素的重要性不是一成不变的，而是随时间变化的。使用logit结构对选择过程进行建模，并使用先前在假设风暴中从新奥尔良地区收集的陈述选择数据来校准模型。该研究发现，通向路线的便利性，对路线的熟悉程度，道路类型，路线的长度以及服务（加油站和酒店）的可用性都会影响疏散路线的选择。疏散期上半年撤离的感知服务，可及性和距离系数的大小与下半年疏散的感知系数，幅度和距离的系数不同，但两个时间间隔之间的道路类型系数没有显着差异。从卡特里娜飓风疏散中观察到的交通量数据用于验证模型。该模型预测的交通量与卡特里娜飓风的实际交通量的比较显示，I-10，I-55和US-61上的交通量的错误百分比分别为错误的17.5％，0.01％和28％。 （C）2014年美国土木工程师学会。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Natural Hazards Review》 |2015年第2期|04014021.1-04014021.7|共7页
  • 作者

    Akbarzadeh Meisam; Wilmot Chester G.;

  • 作者单位

    Isfahan Univ Technol, Dept Transportat, Esfahan 81156, Iran;

    Louisiana State Univ, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号