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Empirical Relationship between Large Dams and the Alteration in Extreme Precipitation

机译：大坝与极端降水变化之间的经验关系

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This study looks at the empirical relationship between the presence of large dams and the potential alteration in extreme precipitation patterns in their vicinity. The global analysis indicates that extreme precipitation has altered considerably more than mean precipitation during the last century. We found this alteration to be more pronounced during the postdam period where the 99th percentile of precipitation experienced an average of 4% increase per year in magnitude. While the density of dams within a given radius did not correlate tangibly with the change in the percentile value, the frequency of rain (average number of rainy days per year) was found to have twice as much correlation during the postdam period than during the predam period. In general, dams in the regions of southern Africa, India, the Western United States, and Central Asia were found to have increased extreme precipitation more than other regions. It also appeared that large dams alter extreme precipitation patterns more in the arid/semiarid regions more than other places. The study confirms that the impact of large dams on extreme precipitation is clearly a function of surrounding mesoscale and land-use conditions and that more research is necessary to gain insights on the physical mechanisms of precipitation alteration by dams. What is needed hereafter to understand how a reservoir triggers changes in precipitation patterns and affects dam safety is a coupled land-atmosphere modeling approach. Due to the interactions of the atmospheric processes with surface water, understanding and predicting the effect that human-modified flood-frequency behavior has on sustainable dam design and reservoir operations cannot be achieved by stand-alone hydrologic-hydraulic models as has been historically pursued by the engineering profession.
机译：这项研究着眼于大型水坝的存在与附近极端降水模式的潜在变化之间的经验关系。全球分析表明，上个世纪极端降水的变化远大于平均降水。我们发现，在大坝后时期，这种变化更为明显，当时百分之九十九的降水量每年平均增加4％。虽然给定半径内的大坝密度与百分位数值的变化没有明显关系，但发现降雨频率（每年平均雨天数）与后坝期的相关度是前坝期的两倍。期。一般而言，发现南部非洲，印度，美国西部和中亚地区的水坝比其他地区的极端降水增加得更多。看来，大型水坝在干旱/半干旱地区的极端降水模式比其他地方更多。该研究证实，大型水坝对极端降水的影响显然是周围中尺度和土地利用条件的函数，并且有必要进行更多的研究以深入了解水坝改变降水的物理机制。以后需要了解水库如何触发降水模式变化并影响大坝安全的是一种陆-气耦合模拟方法。由于大气过程与地表水之间的相互作用，人们无法通过独立的水文-水力模型来理解和预测人为改变的洪水频率行为对可持续大坝设计和水库运行的影响。工程专业。

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