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Risk Analysis of a Protected Hurricane-Prone Region. II: Computations and Illustrations

机译:受保护的飓风普龙地区的风险分析。 II:计算和插图

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摘要

This paper describes a case study implementing a methodology for assessing risks to protected hurricane-prone regions. A simple hurricane protection system is constructed to illustrate the required inputs for the system definition, computations, and hazard and risk profiles. The inputs include the required specifications for basin and subbasin reaches, transitions, and associated fragilities, closures, and storm parameters. Moreover, the case study produces elevation- and loss-exceedance probability and rate curves for each subbasin and the system as a whole, and demonstrates quantitative benefit-cost analysis using this risk information. The implementation of the risk model is packaged as the Flood Risk Analysis for Tropical Storm Environments tool currently in use by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineering Interagency Performance Evaluation Team charged with assessing hurricane risks to the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana, and proposed changes to the hurricane protection system.
机译:本文描述了一个案例研究,该案例研究实施了评估易受飓风袭击地区的风险的方法。构建了一个简单的飓风保护系统,以说明系统定义,计算以及危害和风险概况所需的输入。输入内容包括流域和子流域到达,过渡以及相关的脆弱性,封闭性和风暴参数所需的规范。此外,该案例研究还为每个子流域和整个系统生成了超出和超过的概率和费率曲线,并演示了使用此风险信息进行的效益成本定量分析。风险模型的实施打包为“热带风暴环境的洪水风险分析”工具,目前由美国陆军工程兵团机构间绩效评估小组使用,负责评估新奥尔良和路易斯安那州东南部的飓风风险,并提出了对飓风保护系统。

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