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Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity

机译：春季变暖对北方植物生产力的广泛季节性补偿效应

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摘要

Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants(1), thereby altering the functioning of ecosystems, which in turn induces feedbacks to the climate system(2). In northern (north of 30 degrees N) ecosystems, warmer springs lead generally to an earlier onset of the growing season(3,4) and increased ecosystem productivity early in the season(5). In situ(6) and regional(7-9) studies also provide evidence for lagged effects of spring warmth on plant productivity during the subsequent summer and autumn. However, our current understanding of these lagged effects, including their direction (beneficial or adverse) and geographic distribution, is still very limited. Here we analyse satellite, field-based and modelled data for the period 1982-2011 and show that there are widespread and contrasting lagged productivity responses to spring warmth across northern ecosystems. On the basis of the observational data, we find that roughly 15 per cent of the total study area of about 41 million square kilometres exhibits adverse lagged effects and that roughly 5 per cent of the total study area exhibits beneficial lagged effects. By contrast, current-generation terrestrial carbon-cycle models predict much lower areal fractions of adverse lagged effects (ranging from 1 to 14 per cent) and much higher areal fractions of beneficial lagged effects (ranging from 9 to 54 per cent). We find that elevation and seasonal precipitation patterns largely dictate the geographic pattern and direction of the lagged effects. Inadequate consideration in current models of the effects of the seasonal build-up of water stress on seasonal vegetation growth may therefore be able to explain the differences that we found between our observation-constrained estimates and the model-constrained estimates of lagged effects associated with spring warming. Overall, our results suggest that for many northern ecosystems the benefits of warmer springs on growing-season ecosystem productivity are effectively compensated for by the accumulation of seasonal water deficits, despite the fact that northern ecosystems are thought to be largely temperature-and radiation-limited(10).
机译：气候变化正在改变植物的物候周期（1），从而改变了生态系统的功能，进而引起了对气候系统的反馈（2）。在北部（北纬30度以北）的生态系统中，较暖的泉水通常会导致生长季节更早开始（3,4），并在季节初增加生态系统生产力（5）。原位研究（6）和地区研究（7-9）也为随后的夏季和秋季春季温暖对植物生产力的滞后影响提供了证据。但是，我们目前对这些滞后效应，包括其方向（有利或不利）和地理分布的理解仍然非常有限。在这里，我们分析了1982年至2011年期间的卫星数据，基于现场的数据和模型化数据，结果表明，北部生态系统对春季暖化的生产力响应存在广泛且相对的滞后性。根据观测数据，我们发现约4100万平方公里的总研究面积中约有15％表现出不利的滞后效应，而约有5％的总研究面积中表现出了有利的滞后效应。相比之下，当前的陆地碳循环模型预测不利滞后效应的面积比例要低得多（范围为1％至14％），有益滞后效应的面积比例要高得多（范围为9％至54％）。我们发现海拔和季节性降水模式在很大程度上决定了滞后效应的地理模式和方向。因此，在当前模型中对水分胁迫的季节性累积对季节性植被生长的影响的考虑不足，因此可能能够解释我们发现的观测约束估计值与模型约束估计值与春季相关滞后效应之间的差异。变暖。总体而言，我们的结果表明，尽管许多北方生态系统在很大程度上受到温度和辐射的限制，但对于许多北方生态系统而言，春季暖水对季节性生长的生态系统生产力的好处可以通过季节性缺水的积累得到有效补偿。 （10）。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2018年第7725期|110-114|共5页
  • 作者

    Buermann Wolfgang; Forkel Matthias; OSullivan Michael; Sitch Stephen; Friedlingstein Pierre; Haverd Vanessa; Jain Atul K.; Kato Etsushi; Kautz Markus; Lienert Sebastian; Lombardozzi Danic A.; Nabel Julia E. M. S.; Tian Hanqin; Wiltshire Andrew J.; Zhu Dan; Smith William K.; Richardson Andrew D.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;

    TU Wien, Dept Geodesy & Geoinformat, Climate & Environm Remote Sensing Grp, Vienna, Austria;

    Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;

    Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England;

    Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England;

    CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia;

    Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, 105 S Gregory Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA;

    Inst Appl Energy, Tokyo, Japan;

    Forest Res Inst Baden Wurttemberg, Freiburg, Germany;

    Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys Phys Inst, Bern, Switzerland;

    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam, Terr Sci Sect, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;

    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany;

    Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Int Ctr Climate & Global Change Res, Auburn, AL 36849 USA;

    Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;

    LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France;

    Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA;

    No Arizona Univ, Sch Informat Comp & Cyber Syst, Flagstaff, AZ USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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