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Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production

机译:极端天气灾害对全球农作物产量的影响

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摘要

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production(1-5). While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight similar to 7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.
机译:近年来,几起极端天气灾害已部分或完全破坏了区域作物的产量(1-5)。尽管存在关于极端天气灾害影响的详细区域说明,但干旱,洪水和极端温度对农作物生产的全球范围影响尚待量化。据我们所知,在这里,我们首次估计了1964-2007年间报告的极端天气灾害导致的全球谷物生产损失。我们表明干旱和极端高温使国家谷物产量大幅降低了9-10%,而我们的分析无法在国家数据中确定洪水和极端寒冷的影响。通过分析基本过程,我们发现干旱造成的生产损失与收割面积和单产的下降有关,而极端高温主要降低了谷物的单产。此外,结果表明,与最近的干旱相比,最近的干旱造成的生产损失增加了约7%,而发达国家的损失则增加了8-11%。我们的发现可能有助于指导农业国际减灾和适应工作的重点。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2016年第7584期|84-87|共4页
  • 作者单位

    McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 0B9, Canada;

    Univ Sussex, Dept Geog, Brighton BN1 9QJ, E Sussex, England;

    McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 0B9, Canada|Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada|Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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