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Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO_2 from 2000 to 2010

机译：2000年至2010年观测到的CO_2表面辐射强迫

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摘要

The climatic impact of CO_2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth's radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases. Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO_2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82 ± 0.19 W m~(-2) (ref. 2). However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO_2. Here we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO_2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO_2. The time series of this forcing at the two locations-the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska-are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations. The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2 W m~(-2) per decade (with respective uncertainties of ±0.06 W m~(-2) per decade and ±0.07 W m~(-2) per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1-0.2 W m~(-2). This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation. These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO_2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.%模型研究曾被用来量化大气CO_2浓度升高对过去200年红外能量平衡、进而对气候的影响，但观测数据却很少。这篇论文提供了大气CO_2浓度升高对地球表面能量平衡之影响的经验证据。2000年和2010年间在两个实验点测出的表面辐射强迫的增加，直接使得大气CO_2浓度在这十年间升高22ppm,并且与模型研究结果相符。
机译：通常用辐射强迫来量化CO_2和其他温室气体对气候的影响，计算方法是根据工业化前和当今这些气体的浓度估算的地球辐射场之间的差。辐射传递模型计算得出，自1750年以来，CO_2的增加对应于对流层顶的全球年平均辐射强迫（1.82±0.19 W m〜（-2））（参考文献2）。但是，尽管进行了广泛的科学讨论，并且对温室气体充分混合的气候影响进行了建模，但是几乎没有直接观察到的证据表明大气中CO_2的增加会产生辐射影响。在这里，我们提供基于观测的证据，表明晴空CO_2表面辐射强迫直接归因于2000年至2010年间每百万大气CO_2 22份的增加。在两个位置（南大平原和阿拉斯加北坡）的这种强迫时间序列是根据大气辐射辐射干涉仪光谱以及辅助测量结果和辐射传递计算得出的。时间序列均显示每十年有0.2 W m〜（-2）的统计显着趋势（不确定度分别为每十年±0.06 W m〜（-2）和每十年±0.07 W m〜（-2）），并且具有季节范围为0.1-0.2 W m〜（-2）。这大约是下波长波辐射趋势的百分之十。这些结果证实了人为排放对大气温室效应的理论预测，并提供了由光合作用和呼吸作用引起的时间变化介导的CO_2水平升高如何影响表面能平衡的经验证据。论文提供了大气CO_2浓度升高对过去200年的红外能量平衡，且对气候的影响，但观察到数据却很少。本文提供了大气CO_2浓度升高对地球表面能量平衡之影响的经验证据。 2010年间在两个实验点测出的表面辐射强迫的增加，直接导致大气CO_2浓度在这十年间升高22ppm，并且与模型研究结果相符。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2015年第7543期|339-343A1|共6页
  • 作者

    D. R. Feldman; W. D. Collins; P. J. Gero; M. S. Torn; E. J. Mlawer; T. R. Shippert;

  • 作者单位

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,University of California-Berkeley, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, 307 McCone Hall, MC 4767, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    University of Wisconsin-Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA;

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,University of California-Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, MC 3050, California 94720, USA;

    Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, Massachusetts 02141, USA;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Fundamental and Computational Sciences, 902 Battelle Boulevard, Richland, Washington 99354, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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