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Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

机译：平均和极端降雪对气候变化的不同反应

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摘要

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1, 000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as-9 ℃, compared to-14 ℃ for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.
机译：降雪是气候系统的重要组成部分，而且预计会随着气候变暖而发生变化。平均降雪量和降雪强度分布都很重要，大降雪事件对经济和人类的影响特别大。气候模型的模拟表明，在大多数地区，年平均降雪量随着变暖而下降，但在地表温度非常低的地区却增加。然而，大雪事件对气候变化的反应尚不清楚。在这里，我表明，在温室气体排放量很高的情况下使用气候模型进行的模拟中，到二十一世纪后期，每日降雪强度的分数变化比北半球许多土地区域的平均降雪的分数变化要小。例如，对于每月气候温度刚好低于冰点和地表海拔低于1000米的情况，多模式中位数的每日降雪量的99.99％降低了8％，而平均降雪量则降低了65％。对于足够大的变暖，平均降雪和降雪都必须降低，但是在模拟气候中，降雪的极端温度随温度升高而降低的气候温度高达9℃，而平均降雪则为14℃。这些结果得到了基于物理的理论的支持，该理论与观测到的雨雪过渡一致。根据该理论，降雪极限发生在对气候变暖不敏感的最佳温度附近，因此每日降雪百分位数越高，分数变化就越小。我发现降雪的模拟变化会影响地面降雪及其危害；这些变化也表明，在降雪极端时可能很难检测到区域气候变化信号。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2014年第7515期|416-418|共3页
  • 作者

    Paul A. OGorman;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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