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Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming

机译：热带印度太平洋变暖带动的沃克环流减慢

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摘要

Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily over the past century, but the overall pattern contains extensive and often uncertain spatial variations, with potentially important effects on regional precipitation. Observations suggest a slowdown of the zonal atmospheric overturning circulation above the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Walker circulation) over the twentieth century. Although this change has been attributed to a muted hydrological cycle forced by global warming, the effect of SST warming patterns has not been explored and quantified. Here we perform experiments using an atmospheric model, and find that SST warming patterns are the main cause of the weakened Walker circulation over the past six decades (1950-2009). The SST trend reconstructed from bucket-sampled SST and night-time marine surface air temperature features a reduced zonal gradient in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, a change consistent with subsurface temperature observations. Model experiments with this trend pattern robustly simulate the observed changes, including the Walker circulation slowdown and the eastward shift of atmospheric convection from the Indonesian maritime continent to the central tropical Pacific. Our results cannot establish whether the observed changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic global warming, but they do show that the observed slowdown in the Walker circulation is presumably driven by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes.
机译：在过去的一个世纪中，全球平均海表温度（SST）稳步上升，但总体格局包含广泛且通常不确定的空间变化，对区域降水具有潜在的重要影响。观测表明，在二十世纪，热带太平洋上空的纬向大气翻转环流（沃克环流）减弱了。尽管这种变化归因于全球变暖导致的水文循环减弱，但尚未探索和量化SST变暖模式的影响。在这里，我们使用大气模型进行实验，发现在过去的六十年（1950-2009年）中，SST的升温模式是沃克环流减弱的主要原因。从桶采样的SST和夜间海洋表面气温重建的SST趋势在热带印度洋-太平洋中具有减小的纬向梯度，这一变化与地下温度观测值一致。具有这种趋势模式的模型实验强有力地模拟了观测到的变化，包括沃克环流减速和大气对流从印尼海洋大陆向热带中部太平洋的东移。我们的结果无法确定观测到的变化是由于自然变化还是人为的全球变暖所致，但它们确实表明，观测到的沃克环流减速可能是由海洋而不是大气过程驱动的。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2012年第7424期|p.439-443|共5页
  • 作者

    Hiroki Tokinaga; Shang-Ping Xie; Clara Deser; Yu Kosaka; Yuko M. Okumura;

  • 作者单位

    International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA;

    International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA,Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;

    National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA;

    International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA;

    Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, Texas 78758, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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