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Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

机译：气候变化对欧洲生命之树的影响

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摘要

Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020,2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phytogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.
机译：预计许多物种将容易受到二十一世纪气候变化的影响，从而对生命树产生影响。如果损失不是随机分布在整个生命树上，那么气候变化可能导致进化史损失过多。在这里，我们估算了气候变化对整个欧洲植物，鸟类和哺乳动物组合的系统发育多样性的影响。使用对2020、2050和2080年的预报集和高分辨率的系统树的共识，我们表明，物种对气候变化的脆弱性在植物区系中较弱。这种物种脆弱性的系统发育信号不会导致进化史损失比随机灭绝模型所预期的要高。这是因为弱势物种的亲戚数不少于其余进化枝。在南欧，系统发育多样性的减少将更大，预计在高纬度或高海拔地区也会有所增加。但是，损失不会被收益所抵消，生命之树面临着整个大陆同质化的趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2011年第7335期|p.531-534|共4页
  • 作者

    Wilfried Thuiller; Sebastien Lavergne; Cristina Roquet; Isabelle Boulangeat; Bruno Lafourcade; Miguel. B. Araujo;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine, UMRCNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

    Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine, UMRCNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

    Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine, UMRCNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

    Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine, UMRCNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

    Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine, UMRCNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

    Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain,Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO, University of Evora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Evora, Portugal;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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