The latest research seems to imply that all earthquakes are born equal. But combining that insight with earlier, seemingly contradictory, work could help us to tell which tremors grow to become more equal than others. In an analysis on page 358 of this issue, Steven Wesnousky provides strong evidence that the ultimate size of a seismic rupture is largely controlled by the structure of the underlying fault, and therefore that big earthquakes do not differ from small earthquakes in their beginnings. These data might seem to conflict with earlier observations implying that the size of an earthquake is determined by the dynamics of rupture onset. In fact, both conclusions could be true, and combining these two data sets in future analyses of seismic hazards might result in a better prediction of the eventual size of an earthquake before the shaking stops.
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