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Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements

机译：卫星测量对气溶胶直接辐射强迫的全球估计

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Atmospheric aerosols cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation. Additional anthropogenic aerosols released into the atmosphere thus exert a direct radiative forcing on the climate system. The degree of present-day aerosol forcing is estimated from global models that incorporate a representation of the aerosol cycles. Although the models are compared and validated against observations, these estimates remain uncertain. Previous satellite measurements of the direct effect of aerosols contained limited information about aerosol type, and were confined to oceans only. Here we use state-of-the-art satellite-based measurements of aerosols and surface wind speed to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, incorporating measurements over land and ocean. We use a Monte Carlo approach to account for uncertainties in aerosol measurements and in the algorithm used. Probability density functions obtained for the direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere give a clear-sky, global, annual average of -1.9 W m~(-2) with standard deviation, ±0.3 W m~(-2. These results suggest that present-day direct radiative forcing is stronger than present model estimates, implying future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline.
机译：大气气溶胶会导致散射和吸收入射的太阳辐射。因此，释放到大气中的其他人为气溶胶对气候系统产生直接的辐射强迫。目前的气溶胶强迫程度是根据整合了气溶胶循环表示形式的整体模型估算得出的。尽管已对模型进行了比较和验证，但这些估计仍不确定。先前的卫星对气溶胶直接影响的测量仅包含有关气溶胶类型的有限信息，并且仅限于海洋。在这里，我们使用基于卫星的最新气溶胶和地表风速测量方法来估算2002年的晴空直接辐射强迫，其中包括陆地和海洋的测量结果。我们使用蒙特卡洛方法来解决气溶胶测量和所用算法中的不确定性。在大气层顶部直接辐射强迫所获得的概率密度函数给出了-1.9 W m〜（-2）的晴空全球年平均值，标准偏差为±0.3 W m〜（-2。）。这表明当今的直接辐射强迫要强于目前的模型估算值，这意味着随着气溶胶排放量持续下降，未来的大气变暖将比目前的预测值更大。

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