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Natural selection on the Arabidopsis thaliana genome in present and future climates

机译：当前和未来气候中拟南芥基因组的自然选择

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Through the lens of evolution, climate change is an agent of natural selection that forces populations to change and adapt, or face extinction. However, current assessments of the risk of biodiversity associated with climate change(1) do not typically take into account how natural selection influences populations differently depending on their genetic makeup(2). Here we make use of the extensive genome information that is available for Arabidopsis thaliana and measure how manipulation of the amount of rainfall affected the fitness of 517 natural Arabidopsis lines that were grown in Spain and Germany. This allowed us to directly infer selection along the genome(3). Natural selection was particularly strong in the hot-dry location in Spain, where 63% of lines were killed and where natural selection substantially changed the frequency of approximately 5% of all genome-wide variants. A significant portion of this climate-driven natural selection of variants was predictable from signatures of local adaptation (R-2 = 29-52%), as genetic variants that were found in geographical areas with climates more similar to the experimental sites were positively selected. Field-validated predictions across the species range indicated that Mediterranean and western Siberian populations-at the edges of the environmental limits of this species-currently experience the strongest climate-driven selection. With more frequent droughts and rising temperatures in Europe(4), we forecast an increase in directional natural selection moving northwards from the southern end of Europe, putting many native A. thaliana populations at evolutionary risk.
机译：从进化的角度来看，气候变化是自然选择的推动力，它迫使人们改变和适应，或面临灭绝。但是，当前对与气候变化有关的生物多样性风险的评估（1）通常没有考虑自然选择如何根据其遗传构成对人口产生不同的影响（2）。在这里，我们利用可用于拟南芥的广泛基因组信息，并测量降雨量的影响如何影响在西班牙和德国种植的517条天然拟南芥品系的适应性。这使我们能够直接推断沿基因组的选择（3）。在西班牙的热干地区，自然选择尤为重要，那里有63％的品系被杀死，自然选择极大地改变了所有全基因组变体中大约5％的频率。通过局部适应的特征可以预测到这种由气候驱动的自然选择变体的很大一部分（R-2 = 29-52％），因为积极选择了气候与实验地点相似的地理区域中发现的遗传变体。在整个物种范围内进行的现场验证预测表明，在该物种环境极限的边缘，地中海和西伯利亚西部种群目前经历了最强的气候驱动选择。随着欧洲干旱和气温升高的频繁发生（4），我们预测定向自然选择将从欧洲南端向北移动，这将使许多当地拟南芥种群处于进化风险中。

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