• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Nature >Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan
【24h】

Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan

机译：武汉Covid-19的全传动动态重建

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

As countries in the world review interventions for containing the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), important lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of its causative agent-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)- in Wuhan (China), where vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the local outbreak of this disease(1). Here we use a modelling approach to reconstruct the full-spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan between 1 January and 8 March 2020 across 5 periods defined by events and interventions, on the basis of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases(1). Accounting for presymptomatic infectiousness(2), time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates and population movements(3), we identify two key features of the outbreak: high covertness and high transmissibility. We estimate 87% (lower bound, 53%) of the infections before 8 March 2020 were unascertained (potentially including asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic individuals); and a basic reproduction number (R-0) of 3.54 (95% credible interval 3.40-3.67) in the early outbreak, much higher than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)(4,5). We observe that multipronged interventions had considerable positive effects on controlling the outbreak, decreasing the reproduction number to 0.28 (95% credible interval 0.23-0.33) and-by projection-reducing the total infections in Wuhan by 96.0% as of 8 March 2020. We also explore the probability of resurgence following the lifting of all interventions after 14 consecutive days of no ascertained infections; we estimate this probability at 0.32 and 0.06 on the basis of models with 87% and 53% unascertained cases, respectively-highlighting the risk posed by substantial covert infections when changing control measures. These results have important implications when considering strategies of continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain outbreaks of COVID-19.
机译：随着世界审查2019年冠状病毒疾病大流行病（Covid-19）的各国的国家，可以从其致病剂 - 严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2的全传动动态的研究中提取重要的课程（SARS-COV- 2） - 在武汉（中国），充满活力的非药剂干预措施抑制了这种疾病的当地爆发（1）。在这里，我们使用建模方法在2012年1月1日至3月8日至3月8日至3月8日之间重建Covid-19的全频谱动态，跨事件和干预措施的5个期间，基于32,583个实验室确认的案件（1）。占假设传染病（2），时代的确定率，传输速率和人口运动（3），我们确定了爆发的两个关键特征：高覆盖性和高传播性。我们在2020年3月8日之前估计了87％（下界，53％）的感染令人生畏（可能包括无症状和轻度症状的人）;早期爆发的3.54（可靠间隔3.40-3.67）的基本再现号（R-0），远高于严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）和中东呼吸综合征（MERS）（4,5 ）。我们观察到多强干预对控制爆发具有相当大的积极影响，将再生数减少到0.28（95％可信间隔0.23-0.33），并通过投影降低武汉的总感染率为96.0％，截至3月8日2020年3月8日。我们在没有确定的感染的连续14天后，在提升后，探讨了所有干预措施后的复兴的可能性;我们在0.32和0.06的基础上根据具有87％和53％的不肥化病例的模型来估计这一概率，分别 - 在改变控制措施时突出了大量隐蔽感染所带来的风险。这些结果在考虑持续监测和干预措施最终包含Covid-19爆发的策略时具有重要意义。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7821期|420-424|共5页
  • 作者

    Hao Xingjie; Cheng Shanshan; Wu Degang; Wu Tangchun; Lin Xihong; Wang Chaolong;

  • 作者单位

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll State Key Lab Environm Hlth Incubating Minist Educ Key Lab Environm & Hlth Sch Publ Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Wuhan Peoples R China;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll State Key Lab Environm Hlth Incubating Minist Educ Key Lab Environm & Hlth Sch Publ Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Wuhan Peoples R China;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll State Key Lab Environm Hlth Incubating Minist Educ Key Lab Environm & Hlth Sch Publ Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Wuhan Peoples R China;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll State Key Lab Environm Hlth Incubating Minist Educ Key Lab Environm & Hlth Sch Publ Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll Sch Publ Hlth Dept Occupat & Environm Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Natl Med Ctr Major Publ Hlth Events Wuhan Peoples R China;

    Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth Dept Biostat Boston MA 02115 USA|Harvard Univ Dept Stat Cambridge MA 02138 USA|Broad Inst MIT & Harvard Cambridge MA 02142 USA;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll State Key Lab Environm Hlth Incubating Minist Educ Key Lab Environm & Hlth Sch Publ Hlth Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Tongji Med Coll Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Wuhan Peoples R China|Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Natl Med Ctr Major Publ Hlth Events Wuhan Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号