On a sunny, spring morning, an experienced fisherman furrows his brow and weighs the merits of one fishing hole against another further upstream. At both sites he sees promising signs, and a novice could not distinguish between the two. But the veteran knows that, on mornings like this, bigger fish bite more often upstream — and he selects the upstream spot. Like the fisherman we all make countless day-to-day decisions — selecting restaurants, betting in office football pools, buying used cars, and so on. We base these decisions not just on current information, but also on accumulated experience and expectations about the likelihood and size of rewards.
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