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Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations

机译:北美繁殖鸟类种群的动态

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摘要

Population biologists have long been interested in the variability of natural populations. One approach to dealing with ecological complexity is to reduce the system to one or a few species, for which meaningful equations can be solved. Here we explore an alternative approach by studying the statistical properties of a data set containing over 600 species, namely the North American breeding bird survey. The survey has recorded annual species abundances over a 31-year period along more than 3,000 observation routes. We now analyse the dynamics of population variability using this data set, and find scaling features in common with inanimate systems composed of strongly interacting subunits11. Specifically, we find that the distribution of changes in population abundance over a one-year interval is remarkably symmetrical, with long tails extending over six orders of magnitude. The variance of the population over a time series increases as a power-law with increasing time lag, indicating long-range correlation in population size fluctuation. We also find that the distribution of species lifetimes (the time between colonization and local extinction) within local patches is a power-law with an exponential cutoff imposed by the finite length of the time series. Our results provide a quantitative basis for modelling the dynamics of large species assemblages.
机译:人口生物学家对自然种群的变异性一直很感兴趣。解决生态复杂性的一种方法是将系统简化为一个或几个物种,为此可以解决有意义的方程式。在这里,我们通过研究包含600多种物种的数据集的统计特性(即北美种鸟调查)来探索一种替代方法。该调查记录了31年期间沿着3,000多个观察路线进行的年度物种丰度。现在,我们使用该数据集分析人口变化的动态,并找到由强烈相互作用的亚基组成的无生命系统所共有的缩放特征。具体来说,我们发现在一年的时间间隔内,人口数量变化的分布非常对称,长尾巴延伸了六个数量级。时间序列上的总体方差随幂律随时间滞后的增加而增加,表明总体规模波动具有长期相关性。我们还发现,在局部斑块内的物种生存期(定居和局部灭绝之间的时间)的分布是幂律,时间序列的有限长度强加了指数截止值。我们的结果为建模大物种集合的动力学提供了定量基础。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Nature》 |1998年第6682期|p.257-260|共4页
  • 作者单位
  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然科学总论;
  • 关键词

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