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THE NEXT DUBAI

机译：下迪拜

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The $59 billion debt deferral by the profligate city-state ofDubai late last month sent shock waves through global markets. Though they've since settled, investors are now attuned to the danger of more highly indebted countries veering toward bankruptcy. The likeliest suspects are the economies on Europe's periphery. Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Baltic states face staggering foreign debts in excess of their GDP, and their government balance sheets are filled withred flags such as short-term loans. The cost of insuring against the bankruptcy of these countries has shot up several-fold since last year, with Latvia's rate approaching that of Dubai's. Meanwhile, previously stalwart economies such as Greece and Ireland are doing little better. Greece needs to borrow $70 billion in the next year, a possibly insurmountable task given its 12.7 percent budget deficit (the highest in the euro zone). Ireland, with foreign debts now totaling more than 800 percent of GDP, is in even worse shape. A few short months ago these countries were riding high, as investors hoped to make a quick buck off the rebound. But while previous waves of the credit crisis crashed on the real-estate and banking sectors, the final victims may be governments themselves.
机译：挥霍无度的城市国家迪拜上月末推迟了590亿美元的债务，这给全球市场带来了冲击。尽管他们已经定居下来，但投资者现在已经适应了负债累累的国家转向破产的危险。最有可能的怀疑者是欧洲外围的经济体。保加利亚，匈牙利和波罗的海国家所面临的外债超过其GDP的惊人比例，其政府资产负债表上充斥着诸如短期贷款之类的红旗。自去年以来，针对这些国家破产的保险费用已飙升了几倍，而拉脱维亚的利率已接近迪拜。同时，希腊和爱尔兰等原本坚不可摧的经济体的情况也有所改善。明年希腊需要借入700亿美元，鉴于其12.7％的预算赤字（欧元区最高），这可能是一项无法克服的任务。爱尔兰的外债目前占国内生产总值的800％以上，情况甚至更糟。短短几个月前，这些国家的股价高涨，因为投资者希望迅速反弹。但是，尽管先前的信贷危机浪潮席卷了房地产和银行业，但最终的受害者可能是政府本身。

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    《Newsweek》 |2009年第24期|10|共1页
  • 作者

    JERRY GUO;

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  • 收录信息 美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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