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Endogenously Determined Cycles: Empirical Evidence from Livestock Industries

机译：内生决定的周期：畜牧业的经验证据

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摘要

This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification analysis to investigate U.S. livestock cycles in relation to recent literature on the business cycle. Results are presented for pork and cattle cycles, providing empirical evidence that the cycles themselves have slowly diminished. By comparing the evolution of production processes for the two livestock cycles we argue that the major cause for this moderation is largely endogenous. The analysis suggests that previous theoretical models relying solely on exogenous shocks to create cyclical patterns do not fully capture changes in system dynamics. Specifically, the biological constraint in livestock dynamics has become less significant while technology and information are relatively more significant. Concurrently, vertical integration of the supply chain may have improved inventory management, all resulting in a small, less deterministic, cyclical effect.
机译：本文运用相空间重构和递归量化分析技术来研究美国牲畜周期以及有关商业周期的最新文献。呈现了猪和牛周期的结果，提供了经验证据表明周期本身已逐渐减小。通过比较两个牲畜周期的生产过程的演变，我们认为这种节制的主要原因是内生的。分析表明，以前仅依靠外来冲击来创建周期性模式的理论模型不能完全捕获系统动力学的变化。具体而言，牲畜动态中的生物学限制变得不那么重要，而技术和信息则相对更重要。同时，供应链的垂直整合可能会改善库存管理，所有这些都会产生较小的，不确定性较小的周期性影响。

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