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A Self-destruction Game

机译：自我毁灭游戏

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摘要

A simple model of a self-destructing society is presented. It can be interpreted as a game with two players: the society and its sub-set which tends to destroy the whole society, as well as itself. The main factor taken into account in the model is the progress of science and technology which provides the destruction tools (new weapons and killing techniques), as well as tools the society can use to defend itself. The modeling and simulation tool is discrete-event and can be treated as agent-oriented, though the agent capabilities are rather simple. The simulation experiments show that, in the near future, this progress will become extremely dangerous, and it may result in the total destruction of mankind. For the longer time period, however, the conclusion is not so pessimistic. If the society survives during a certain time interval, then the probability of survival becomes greater for a longer time span.
机译：提出了一个自我毁灭性社会的简单模型。它可以解释为具有两个参与者的游戏：社会及其子集，它往往会破坏整个社会及其自身。模型中考虑的主要因素是科学技术的进步，它提供了销毁工具（新武器和杀伤技术）以及社会可以用来自卫的工具。建模和仿真工具是离散事件，可以将其视为面向代理的，尽管代理功能非常简单。模拟实验表明，在不久的将来，这一进展将变得极为危险，并可能导致人类的全部破坏。然而，对于较长的时间段，结论并不那么悲观。如果社会在一定的时间间隔内生存，那么生存的可能性在更长的时间内会变得更大。

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