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首页> 外文期刊>The North American journal of economics and finance >On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?
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On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

机译：关于信贷和产出：信贷供应是否相关？

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摘要

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.
机译：在二十世纪下半叶，宏观经济学家之间存在关于信贷供给的变化与制定货币政策决定无关的共识。然而，通过信贷供应的变化将冲击传递给实体经济，在最近的美国金融危机中发挥了重要作用。本文探讨了决策者在做出预测和制定货币政策决策时应考虑信贷供应变化的程度。更具体地说，它考虑的是实际信贷余额的衡量标准是否提供了关于战后美国未来产出缺口的一致且稳定的信息，而不是实际利率和实际货币余额信息。结果表明，实际信贷余额的变化是考虑的唯一变量，可提供有关整个样本期内未来产出缺口的一致和稳定的信息。但是，除了简单的自回归模型外，每个信息变量提供的附加值相对较少，无法预测未来的产出缺口。因此，为了改进预测和货币政策决策，决策者应考虑更广泛的信息变量，并偶尔重新评估分配给每个变量的相对权重。

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