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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean & coastal management >Using a multi-model ensemble forecasting approach to identify key marine protected areas for seabirds in the Portuguese coast
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Using a multi-model ensemble forecasting approach to identify key marine protected areas for seabirds in the Portuguese coast

机译：使用多模型总体预报方法确定葡萄牙海岸海鸟的主要海洋保护区

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Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been established across all marine environments, though their coherence and effectiveness in protecting umbrella species remains unclear. We used a multi-model ensemble forecasting approach, on 8 years of at-sea censuses of 30 seabird species to identify candidate MPAs in the Portuguese coast, prioritizing important areas for their conservation based on their occurrence and distribution. We overlapped the outputs generated by the Ensemble Ecological Niche Models (EENMs) with layers representing important environmental stressors (fishing intensity, ship density and oil pollution risk), and calculated loss in conservation value using them as cost layers. Three key marine areas were identified along the Portuguese coast: For breeders, there was a key marine area encompassing the Tagus and Sado estuaries and Berlengas archipelago; for non breeders and migratory species two important areas were identified in the Northern and Southern coast. The key marine area identified in the Northern coast is characterized by high productivity and biodiversity, and can be affected by oil pollution from the refineries and the intensive ship traffic in this area. Also, the area identified in the Southern coast of Portugal for migratory seabirds overlaps extensively with areas of high fishing activity. Our results show that the Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) established along the Portuguese coast protect more than a third of the areas that we prioritized for breeding species and the official MPAs near 65% of the same areas. In contrast, Current IBAs and national legislation protect less than 4% of the coastal areas that we prioritize for non-breeding species in this study. Our study, combining multi-species distribution with environmental constraints induced by human activities, allowed us to assess the coherence of the Portuguese marine planning and identify candidate areas to join the Portuguese network of marine protected areas. Our results, employing data from annual at-sea surveys together with the human stressors known to affect the Portuguese coast, proved to be an extremely useful strategy to identify spatial conservation areas along the Portuguese coast as well as to access the adequacy and consistency of those areas. Despite the constraints of this demanding approach, we are confident that our study provides a reliable strategy to inform Marine conservation efforts and management planning in similar coastal environments elsewhere, characterized by strong coastal upwelling movements.
机译：在所有海洋环境中都建立了海洋保护区（MPA），尽管它们在保护伞类物种方面的连贯性和有效性尚不清楚。我们对30种海鸟进行了8年的海上普查，使用了一种多模型总体预测方法，以识别葡萄牙海岸的候选MPA，并根据其发生和分布对重要的保护区域进行优先排序。我们将“整体生态位模型”（EENMs）产生的输出与代表重要环境压力因子（捕鱼强度，船密度和油污风险）的各层进行了重叠，并使用它们作为成本层来计算保护价值的损失。在葡萄牙沿海地区确定了三个主要的海洋区域：对于繁殖者，有一个主要的海洋区域，包括塔霍河和佐渡河口以及贝伦加斯群岛。对于非繁殖者和迁徙物种，在北部和南部海岸确定了两个重要区域。北部沿海地区确定的主要海洋区域具有高生产力和生物多样性的特点，并且可能受到炼油厂的石油污染和该区域密集的船舶运输的影响。另外，在葡萄牙南部海岸为迁徙海鸟确定的区域与捕捞活动频繁的区域广泛重叠。我们的结果表明，在葡萄牙海岸沿线建立的重要鸟类和生物多样性地区（IBA）保护了我们优先用于繁殖物种的地区的三分之一，而官方MPA则保护了同一地区的近65％。相比之下，当前的IBA和国家法律保护的海岸保护区不足4％，在本研究中，我们将非育种物种列为优先考虑的沿海区。我们的研究将多物种分布与人类活动引起的环境限制相结合，使我们能够评估葡萄牙海洋规划的连贯性，并确定加入葡萄牙海洋保护区网络的候选地区。我们的结果，利用年度海上调查的数据以及已知会影响葡萄牙海岸的人类压力因素，被证明是一种非常有用的策略，可用于识别葡萄牙海岸的空间保护区，并获得这些保护区的充分性和一致性。地区。尽管这种要求苛刻的方法有局限性，但我们有信心，我们的研究提供了可靠的策略，可为其他地区以沿海上升运动为特征的类似沿海环境中的海洋保护工作和管理规划提供信息。

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