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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean & coastal management >Integrating climate change and human impacts into marine spatial planning: A case study of threatened starfish species in Brazil
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Integrating climate change and human impacts into marine spatial planning: A case study of threatened starfish species in Brazil

机译：将气候变化和人类影响纳入海洋空间规划：以巴西受威胁的海星物种为例

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Network expansion of marine protected areas in a changing world is a difficult task for conservation planners. Brazil experiences a combination of low and uneven protection of marine environmets, increasing anthropogenic pressures, climate change, and gaps in information regarding the geographical distribution of many species (Wallacean shortfall). Here, we addressed these issues and present a strategy for identifying priority marine areas for conservation in Brazil that would contribute to increasing species representation and achievement of conservation targets. Within this strategy, we accounted for (i) species range shifts due to climate change and their influence on species distribution, (ii) the lack of species geographical distribution data, and (iii) anthropic pressures on oceans. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 12 threatened starfish species in both present and future (2100) times using Maxent. We also quantified and mapped species range shifts. Second, we developed three conservation spatial solutions and compared the 10% top-ranked areas. The results showed that ENMs had a good performance in representing the distribution of species, even those that had few occurrence records. Our models forecasted a significant range expansion for the majority of species (10 out 12) by 2100. We found that the priority sites covering the top-ranked 10% in the study area identified in ours conservation spatial solutions would protect between 10.41% and 15.88%, on average, of suitable areas for the starfish species. Our results indicated priority sites for conservation less affected by anthropic pressures (similar to 2%) when data on human impacts on oceans were incorporated into the spatial prioritization process. We identified a network of priority marine sites for conservation that minimized human influence and considered the effects of climate change on species distribution. We used threatened starfish species as a case study for illustrating our approach; however, such an approach could be applied to any taxonomic group, which supports the development of more effective conservation actions that represent biodiversity under such threats.
机译：在不断变化的世界中，海洋保护区的网络扩展对于保护规划人员而言是一项艰巨的任务。巴西对海洋环境的保护程度低下和不均衡，人为压力增加，气候变化以及许多物种的地理分布信息空白（华莱士短缺）综合起来。在这里，我们解决了这些问题，并提出了确定巴西优先保护区的战略，这将有助于增加物种代表性和实现保护目标。在此策略中，我们考虑了（i）气候变化引起的物种范围变化及其对物种分布的影响；（ii）缺乏物种地理分布数据；以及（iii）海洋的人为压力。首先，我们使用Maxent为当前和未来（2100年）时间内的12种受威胁海星物种建立了生态位模型（ENM）。我们还量化和映射了物种范围的变化。其次，我们开发了三种保护空间解决方案，并比较了排名靠前的10％区域。结果表明，ENMs在代表物种分布方面表现良好，即使那些没有出现记录的物种也是如此。我们的模型预测，到2100年，大多数物种（12个物种中的10个）的范围将显着扩大。我们发现，在我们的保护空间解决方案中确定的研究区域中，排名最高的10％的优先站点将保护10.41％至15.88％平均而言，适合海星物种的面积百分比。我们的结果表明，当将人类对海洋的影响的数据纳入空间优先排序过程时，优先保护的地点受到人类压力的影响较小（大约2％）。我们确定了一个优先保护海洋站点网络，该网络可以最大程度地减少人类影响，并考虑了气候变化对物种分布的影响。我们以受威胁的海星物种为例来说明我们的方法。但是，这种方法可适用于任何生物分类群，从而支持制定更有效的保护行动，在这种威胁下代表生物多样性。

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