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Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management

机译：平均海平面波动和气候变化代理的周期性：沿海管理建模的经验教训

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The question of whether sea levels and global temperatures are accelerating or decelerating is a major source of current debate. Single taper and multi-taper spectral analysis from seventeen globally distributed tidal stations and twenty climate proxies show aggregate significant common periodicities in mean sea level fluctuations and the climate proxies of approximately 7 yr, 13 yr, 23 yr, 32 yr, 41 yr, 53 yr, 66 yr, 88 yr, 105 yr and 132 yr, respectively. These periods are shown to strongly correlate with an harmonic sequence of n, m = n + n/4 and p = n + n/2n for n = 5.5 yr and this synchronicity allows for a climate state function to be defined by Lotka-Volterra limit cycles. Such a model can include both anthropogenic warming and complex natural cycles, based on past evidence, and these cycles can form or bifurcate into extreme events close to critical values. The model suggests that accelerating sea levels can be in-phase, but lag decelerating global temperatures or vice versa, so a 'pause' in global warming should not be surprising. Further, the model can simulate the uneven regional effect of climate responses and replicate the chaos apparent in monthly sea-level records. The approach poses 'a planner's dilemma' whereby the likelihood of a present 1 in 100 yr positive extreme event can either be caused by anthropogenic warming within shorter cycles or by a stationary mean in a longer cycle. We simply show that for rising average temperatures in a double period cascading model, there would be a three-fold increase in the likelihood of an equivalent 1 in 100 yr positive extreme event relative to present over a 20 yr period. A consequence to the 'planner's dilemma' is the 'manager's risk imperative' where risk cycles can be quantified into strategic GIS maps of potential future inundations: identifying vulnerability, defining possible economic impacts and underpinning response strategies that are legally defensible and transparent to a range of stakeholders.
机译：海平面和全球温度是在加速还是在下降的问题是当前辩论的主要来源。来自17个全球分布的潮汐站和20个气候代理的单锥度和多锥度频谱分析显示，平均海平面波动和大约7年，13年，23年，32年，41年，53年的气候代理总体上具有明显的共同周期年，66年，88年，105年和132年。这些周期与n = 5.5 yr的n，m = n + n / 4和p = n + n / 2n的谐波序列高度相关，并且这种同步性允许由Lotka-Volterra定义气候状态函数极限循环。根据过去的证据，这种模型可以包括人为变暖和复杂的自然周期，并且这些周期可以形成或分叉为接近临界值的极端事件。该模型表明，海平面加速可以同相，但是滞后会降低全球温度，反之亦然，因此全球变暖的“停顿”不足为奇。此外，该模型可以模拟气候响应的不均匀区域效应，并复制每月海平面记录中出现的混乱情况。这种方法造成了“计划者的困境”，即100年正向极端事件中出现1个的可能性可能是由较短周期内的人为变暖或较长周期内的固定均值引起的。我们只是表明，对于双阶段级联模型中的平均温度升高而言，相对于20年期间的正极端事件而言，相当于100年正极端事件发生的可能性将增加三倍。 “计划者困境”的后果是“经理的风险势在必行”，其中风险周期可以量化为潜在的潜在淹没的战略性GIS地图：识别脆弱性，定义可能的经济影响并支持在法律上可辩护且对一定范围透明的应对策略利益相关者。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2014年第9期|187-201|共15页
  • 作者

    R.G.V. Baker; S.A. McGowan;

  • 作者单位

    BCSS, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia;

    BCSS, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia;

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