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Risks for the Black Sea marine environment as perceived by Ukrainian stakeholders: A fuzzy cognitive mapping application

机译：乌克兰利益相关者认为黑海海洋环境的风险：模糊认知图的应用

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摘要

Scientific modelling and socioeconomic approaches are increasingly combined, promising a more effective and reliable approach towards sustainable use of marine resources. Presently several integrated approaches to marine governance are designed and tested within international research consortia. However it is plausible to assume that present societal understanding of environmental goods and services is fuzzy and lacks articulation. Bottom up decision-making needs to integrate this societal understanding of goods and services succeeding through public participation better compliance of environmental policies. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was employed as the proper methodology to reveal Ukrainian laypeople perceptions on the Black Sea ecosystem resilience, risk factors and future perspectives. Therefore, a generic model for environmental management was constructed by augmenting the individual FCMs drawn by 29 laypeople. The graph theoretical indices were calculated and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. At the condensed FCM, after the initial 52 concepts clustering, a total of 26 concepts with 145 connections among concepts were obtained. The most central concept in the collective map was the Municipal Solid Waste and the most mentioned variable was Coastal Development Stakeholders do perceive circular systemic processes regulating the system's behaviour. A number of scenarios were run using the FCM inference process. Results document that simple policy interventions aiming at controlling only one or maximum two parameters of the system are perceived as having no impact at all at the final state of Black Sea ecosystem.
机译：科学建模和社会经济方法日益结合在一起，有望实现一种更有效和可靠的方法，以可持续利用海洋资源。目前，在国际研究联盟中已设计和测试了几种综合的海洋治理方法。但是，可以假设当前社会对环境商品和服务的理解是模糊的，缺乏清晰的表述。自下而上的决策需要整合对社会对商品和服务的理解，并通过公众参与来更好地遵守环境政策。模糊认知映射（FCM）被用作揭示乌克兰外人对黑海生态系统复原力，风险因素和未来观点的正确方法。因此，通过增加29位非专业人士绘制的单个FCM，构建了环境管理的通用模型。计算图的理论指标，并通过扩充产生集体认知图。在浓缩的FCM中，在最初的52个概念聚类之后，总共获得了26个概念，其中145个概念相互联系。集体地图中最核心的概念是市政固体废物，而最受关注的变量是沿海开发利益相关者确实意识到调节系统行为的循环系统过程。使用FCM推理过程运行了许多方案。结果表明，旨在仅控制该系统的一个或最多两个参数的简单政策干预措施对黑海生态系统的最终状态根本没有影响。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2012年第6期|p.34-42|共9页
  • 作者

    A. Kontogianni; E. Papageorgiou; L Salomatina; M. Skourtos; B. Zanou;

  • 作者单位

    University of Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, 81100 Mytilini, Lesvos, Greece;

    Technological Educational Institution of Lamia, Department of Informatics and Computer Technology, 35100 Lamia, Greece;

    National Academy of Sciences of Ukrain, Institute of Industrial Economics, Donetsk, Ukrain;

    University of Aegean, Department of Environment, 81100 Mytilini, Lesvos, Greece;

    Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavissos19013, Greece;

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