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Integrating spatial statistics tools for coastal risk management: A case-study of typhoon risk in mainland China

机译：整合空间统计工具进行沿海风险管理：以中国大陆台风风险为例

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摘要

Risk-informed planning and management are integral to the sustainability of hazard-prone areas at all spatial scales. This paper proposes a geographic information system- (GIS)-based approach to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of coastal risk-using typhoons as a case. The study employs several spatial statistics-based distributional models to systematically evaluate the geographies of typhoon risk, its spatial patterns, and statistically significant hotspots of highest risk in coastal Mainland China. Additionally, we model the level of contribution of each risk parameter (i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and community resilience) towards overall risk. The results show that among 70% coastal counties exposed to typhoons, close to 30% are in the highest risk category (value >= 3rd quartile). The areas under the highest risk harbor more than 50 million people (similar to 43%)-more than 7 million non-adults (0-14 years) (similar to 42%), and approximately 2.5 million elderly people (above 65 years) (similar to 31%)-which is critical. The Pearl-River-Delta region of Guangdong province in southern China is identified as the hotspot of highest typhoon risk, followed by Fujian and Zhejiang provinces-95% confidence. We propose the integration of spatial statistics and distributional models in coastal risk frameworks to evaluate and map the multi-level geographies of natural hazard risk to support risk management efforts. This study is novel to foster a GIS-based approach for risk management in the coastal regions of China, particularly in a disaster-risk-reduction context. The proposed approach and results have important policy implications and are useful for risk-informed decision-making such as prioritization for risk-relevant actions and resources treatment.
机译：在所有空间尺度上，易受风险影响的计划和管理对于易发危险区域的可持续性都是不可或缺的。本文提出了一种基于地理信息系统（GIS）的方法来评估沿海风灾台风的空间异质性。该研究采用了几种基于空间统计的分布模型来系统地评估中国大陆沿海地区的台风风险地理，其空间格局以及具有统计学意义的最高风险最高热点。此外，我们对每个风险参数（即危害，脆弱性和社区适应能力）对整体风险的贡献水平进行建模。结果表明，在遭受台风袭击的70％沿海县中，接近30％处于最高风险类别（值> =第三四分位数）。高风险地区的人口超过5000万人（约占43％）-超过700万非成年人（0-14岁）（约占42％），约有250万老年人（65岁以上） （约31％）-非常重要。中国南部的广东省珠江三角洲地区被确定为台风风险最高的热点地区，其次是福建和浙江省，其可信度为95％。我们建议在沿海风险框架中整合空间统计和分布模型，以评估和绘制自然灾害风险的多层次地理位置，以支持风险管理工作。这项研究对于在中国沿海地区，特别是在减少灾害风险的背景下，建立一种基于GIS的风险管理方法是新颖的。拟议的方法和结果具有重要的政策含义，对于基于风险的决策（例如与风险相关的行动和资源处理的优先级排序）很有用。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2020年第2期|105018.1-105018.14|共14页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    City Univ Hong Kong Sch Energy & Environm Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr Hong Kong Peoples R China|Princeton Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn Princeton NJ 08544 USA;

    City Univ Hong Kong Sch Energy & Environm Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Hong Kong Polytech Univ Dept Land Surveying & Geoinformat Hong Kong Peoples R China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Natural hazards; Tropical cyclones; Spatial distributional models; Geographic information systems (GIS); Coastal resilience;

    机译：自然危害;热带气旋;空间分布模型;地理信息系统（GIS）;沿海弹性;

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