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Climate Change Risk Indicators (CCRI) for seaports in the United Kingdom

机译：气候变化风险指标（CCRI）在英国的海港

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摘要

Climate change is the most threating environmental issue and the biggest challenge that humanity has ever faced. While acting as the key nodes of globalisation and international business, seaports are exposed to the vulnerability of climate impacts, mainly because of their locations, including low-lying areas, coastal zones, and deltas. The paper is to develop a Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) framework for climate risk assessment of seaports, enabling research-informed policymaking on such a demanding topic. Due to the increasing number of extreme weather events (EWEs), climate change adaptation is becoming an essential and necessary issue to be addressed by seaport stakeholders. Climate risk analysis aids rational adaptation planning. Many climate assessments have been done for measuring climate vulnerabilities, and various climate adaptation measures have been proposed for reducing climate risks. However, few of them used quantitative approaches for climate risk evaluations in seaports and fewer on the provisions of CCRIs for comparing climate risks of different locations and timeframes to guide rational policy making. Furthermore, climate change is a dynamic issue, requiring big objective data to support the analysis (e.g. monthly climate data on CCRIs) of climate threats and vulnerabilities. In this paper, Evidence Reasoning (ER) is employed to evaluate the climate risks in seaports by tackling the incomplete data. The findings reveal the quantitative measures of climate change risks in different locations and in different months. Furthermore, the risk levels of seaports in the future are assessed for observing the changes and informing policy making. The main contributions of this study include the visualisation of the comprehensive climate risk levels and provision of a new climate risk analysis framework through the comparison of climate change risks with respect to different locations and timeframes. Suitable climate adaptation measures can be chosen to implement, and seaports can cooperate on climate resilience issues (e.g. seaport network service and pre-disaster relief logistics).
机译：气候变化是最threating环境问题和人类所面临的最大挑战。同时作为全球化和国际业务的关键节点，海港暴露于气候影响的脆弱性，因为它们的位置，主要包括低洼地区，沿海地区和三角洲。本文是开发港口的气候风险评估气候变化的风险指标（中棉所）的框架，使科研知情政策制定这样一个苛刻的话题。由于越来越多的极端天气事件（母羊），适应气候变化正在成为由海港利益相关者加以解决的重要和必要的问题。气候风险分析有助于合理的适应规划。许多气候评估已经完成用于测量气候脆弱性，并提出了降低气候风险的各种气候适应措施。然而，很少人用于海港气候风险评估和CCRIS的比较不同地点和时间范围的气候风险，引导理性决策的规定较少的定量方法。此外，气候变化是一个动态问题，需要大的客观数据来支持分析气候威胁和脆弱性（对CCRIS例如每月气候数据）。在本文中，证据推理（ER）采用通过解决不完整的数据来评估在港口的气候风险。这些发现揭示了在不同地点和不同月份气候变化风险的定量措施。此外，在未来海港的风险水平进行评估，观察变化，并通知决策。这项研究的主要贡献是全面的气候风险水平，通过对气候变化风险对于不同地点和时限比较可视化，并提供新的气候风险分析框架。可以选择适宜的气候适应措施落实，和海港可以抵御气候变化能力问题上进行合作（如海港网络服务和预救灾物流）。

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