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Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea

机译：北海的极端风暴潮模拟

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This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter (alpha (C h) = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.
机译：这项研究表明，在不依赖海况的情况下选择合适的恒定夏诺克参数的情况下，北海风暴潮模型的性能在很大程度上不受因海况变化引起的地表阻力随时间变化的应用的影响。事实证明，包括较小规模的基本气象特征，以及通过提高强制数据分辨率来最小化插值误差，对于改善模型性能（尤其是在概率分布的高尾部）更重要。这是在使用WAQUA / DCSMv5进行的建模研究中发现的，方法是评估实际的海气动量传递参数化的影响，并将其与所施加强迫场的时空分辨率变化的影响进行比较，以支持改进影响和气候分析研究。根据荷兰的例子，特别关注了过去几十年来的极端水位。为此，必须使用ERA-Interim重新分析数据来强制WAQUA / DCSMv5。模型结果是从一组不同的强迫场中获得的，这些强迫场要么（i）包括与波浪状态有关的Charnock参数，要么（ii）应用针对在2004年的年轻海况调整的恒定Charnock参数（alpha（C h）= 0.032）。北海，但在空间和/或时间分辨率上有所不同。通过动态缩小比例，将强迫场分辨率从大约79 km提高到12 km，可以将模拟的低偏差（根据沿海站点而定）降低至0.25 m（对于模拟的极端水位，返回期为1年，在0.1 m至0.5 m之间）适用于极端的浪涌高度。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Dynamics》 |2018年第2期|255-272|共18页
  • 作者

    Ridder Nina; de Vries Hylke; Drijfhout Sybren; van den Brink Henk; van Meijgaard Erik; de Vries Hans;

  • 作者单位

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

    Minist Infrastruct Milieu, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Postbus 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Storm surge; Modelling; Coastal water level; Extreme events; Wind stress; North Sea;

    机译：风暴潮;建模;沿海水位;极端事件;风应力;北海;

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