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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Dynamics >Statistical estimation of extreme ocean waves over the eastern Canadian shelf from 30-year numerical wave simulation
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Statistical estimation of extreme ocean waves over the eastern Canadian shelf from 30-year numerical wave simulation

机译：根据30年的数值海浪模拟对加拿大东部陆架上极端海浪的统计估计

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摘要

Reliable estimation of extreme ocean surface gravity waves is important for many scientific and practical issues. In this study, WAVEWATCHIII is used to simulate wave conditions over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS) for the 30-year period, 1979-2008. The wave model is forced by the 6-hourly winds and ice cover taken from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A parametric vortex is inserted into the CFSR winds to better represent surface winds associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. The model performance in simulating the bulk significant wave height is assessed by comparing model results with wave observations at 12 buoy stations over the ECS. The peaks-over-threshold method is used to estimate the extreme significant wave heights from 30-year wave simulations. The estimated extreme waves with the 50-year return period over the ECS feature large wave heights of more than 12 m in the offshore deep waters and about 8-12 m over the open shelf waters of the ECS. By comparison, the 50-year extreme waves are moderate and 7 m or less in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and inner Gulf of Maine.
机译：对于许多科学和实践问题，可靠地估计极端海洋表面重力波都很重要。在这项研究中，WAVEWATCHIII用于模拟1979-2008年这30年期间加拿大东部大陆架（ECS）的波浪条件。波浪模型是由气候预测系统再分析（CFSR）得出的每6小时一次的风和冰盖所推动的。将参数涡旋插入CFSR风中以更好地表示与热带风暴或飓风相关的地表风。通过将模型结果与ECS上12个浮标站上的波浪观测值进行比较，可以评估模型在模拟有效波高时的性能。超过阈值的峰值方法用于根据30年的海浪模拟估算极高的海浪高度。据估计，在ECS上有50年回归期的极端海浪在离岸深水域的波浪高度超过12 m，在ECS的开放陆架水域的波浪高度约为8-12 m。相比之下，圣劳伦斯湾和缅因州内湾的50年极端海浪中等，不超过7 m。

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