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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Dynamics >Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems: assessing the current risk of mortality outbreaks associated with thermal stress in NW Mediterranean coastal areas
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Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems: assessing the current risk of mortality outbreaks associated with thermal stress in NW Mediterranean coastal areas

机译：气候变化对沿海底栖生态系统的影响：评估西北地中海沿岸地区当前与热应激有关的死亡暴发风险

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摘要

In the framework of climate change, the increase in ocean heat wave frequency is expected to impact marine life. Large-scale positive temperature anomalies already occurred in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea in 1999, 2003 and 2006. These anomalies were associated with mass mortality events of macrobenthic species in coastal areas (0-40 m in depth). The anomalies were particularly severe in 1999 and 2003 when thousands of kilometres of coasts and about 30 species were affected. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the current risk of mass mortality associated with temperature increase along NW Mediterranean continental coasts. A 3D regional ocean model was used to obtain the temperature conditions for the period 2001-2010, for which the model outputs were validated by comparing them with in situ observations in affected areas. The model was globally satisfactory, although extremes were underestimated and required correction. Combined with information on the thermo-tolerance of a key species (the red gorgonian P. clavata) as well as its spatial distribution, the modelled temperature conditions were then used to assess the risk of mass mortality associated with thermal stress for the first time. Most of the known areas of observed mass mortality were found using the model, although the degree of risk in certain areas was underestimated. Using climatic IPCC scenarios, the methodology could be applied to explore the impacts of expected climate change in the NW Mediterranean. This is a key issue for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change.
机译：在气候变化的框架内，海洋热浪频率的增加有望影响海洋生物。在1999年，2003年和2006年，西北地中海已经发生了大规模的正温度异常。这些异常与沿海地区（深度0-40 m）大型底栖生物的质量死亡事件有关。在1999年和2003年，当数千公里的海岸和大约30种物种受到影响时，异常情况特别严重。这项研究的目的是开发一种方法，以评估当前西北地中海大陆沿岸与温度升高相关的大规模死亡的风险。使用3D区域海洋模型获取2001-2010年期间的温度条件，通过将其与受影响地区的现场观测值进行比较来验证模型输出。尽管极端情况被低估并需要修正，但该模型在全球范围内令人满意。结合有关关键物种（红色高粱P. clavata）的耐热性及其空间分布的信息，然后将模拟的温度条件用于评估与热应激相关的大规模死亡的风险。使用该模型可以找到大多数已知的观察到的大规模死亡的地区，尽管某些地区的危险程度被低估了。使用气候IPCC情景，该方法可用于探索西北地中海地区预期气候变化的影响。这是制定健全的管理和养护计划以面对气候变化保护地中海海洋生物多样性的关键问题。

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