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Particle tracking in the vicinity of Helgoland, North Sea: a model comparison

机译：北海Helgoland附近的粒子追踪：模型比较

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Station Helgoland Roads in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight) hosts one of the richest long-term time series of marine observations. Hydrodynamic transport simulations can help understand variability in the local data brought about by intermittent changes of water masses. The objective of our study is to estimate to which extent the outcome of such transport simulations depends on the choice of a specific hydrodynamic model. Our basic experiment consists of 3,377 Lagrangian simulations in time-reversed mode initialized every 7 h within the period Feb 2002-Oct 2004. Fifty-day backward simulations were performed based on hourly current fields from four different hydrodynamic models that are all well established but differ with regard to spatial resolution, dimensionality (2D or 3D), the origin of atmospheric forcing data, treatment of boundary conditions, presence or absence of baroclinic terms, and the numerical scheme. The particle-tracking algorithm is 2D; fields from 3D models were averaged vertically. Drift simulations were evaluated quantitatively in terms of the fraction of released particles that crossed each cell of a network of receptor regions centred at the island of Helgoland. We found substantial systematic differences between drift simulations based on each of the four hydrodynamic models. Sensitivity studies with regard to spatial resolution and the effects of baroclinic processes suggest that differences in model output cannot unambiguously be assigned to certain model properties or restrictions. Therefore, multi-model simulations are needed for a proper identification of uncertainties in long-term Lagrangian drift simulations.
机译：位于北海东南部（德国湾）的Helgoland公路站是海洋观测中最丰富的长期时间序列之一。水动力传输模拟可以帮助理解由水团的间歇性变化带来的局部数据的变化性。我们研究的目的是估计这种运输模拟的结果在多大程度上取决于特定流体动力学模型的选择。我们的基础实验包括2002年2月至2004年10月期间每7小时初始化的3377个拉格朗日时间反转模拟。基于四个不同水动力模型的小时电流场，进行了五十天的反向模拟，这些模拟均已很好地建立，但有所不同关于空间分辨率，维数（2D或3D），大气强迫数据的起源，边界条件的处理，是否存在斜斜项以及数值方案。粒子跟踪算法是二维的；将3D模型的垂直场平均。漂移模拟是根据与以黑尔戈兰岛为中心的受体区域网络的每个细胞交叉的释放颗粒的比例进行定量评估的。我们发现基于四个流体动力学模型中的每一个的漂移模拟之间存在实质性的系统差异。关于空间分辨率和斜压过程影响的敏感性研究表明，模型输出的差异不能明确地分配给某些模型属性或限制。因此，需要多模型仿真来正确识别长期拉格朗日漂移仿真中的不确定性。

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