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Characteristics of intra-, inter-annual and decadal sea-level variability and the role of meteorological forcing: the long record of Cuxhaven

机译：年内，年际和年代际海平面变化的特征以及气象强迫的作用：库克斯港的悠久记录

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This paper addresses the role of meteorological forcing on mean sea level (MSL) variability at the tide gauge of Cuxhaven over a period from 1871 to 2008. It is found that seasonal sea level differs significantly from annual means in both variability and trends. The causes for the observed differences are investigated by comparing to changes in wind stress, sea level pressure and precipitation. Stepwise regression is used to estimate the contribution of the different forcing factors to sea level variability. The model validation and sensitivity analyses showed that a robust and timely independent estimation of regression coefficients becomes possible if at least 60 to 80 years of data are available. Depending on the season, the models are able to explain between 54 % (spring, April to June) and 90 % (winter, January to March) of the observed variability. Most parts of the observed variability are attributed to changes in zonal wind stress, whereby the contribution of sea level pressure, precipitation and meridional wind stress is rather small but still significant. On decadal timescales, the explanatory power of local meteorological forcing is considerable weaker, suggesting that the remaining variability is attributed to remote forcing over the North Atlantic. Although meteorological forcing contributes to linear trends in some sub-periods of seasonal time series, the annual long-term trend is less affected. However, the uncertainties of trend estimation can be considerably reduced, when removing the meteorological influences. A standard error smaller than 0.5 mm/year requires 55 years of data when using observed MSL at Cuxhaven tide gauge. In contrast, a similar standard error in the meteorologically corrected residuals is reached after 32 years.
机译：本文探讨了气象强迫对Cuxhaven潮汐计在1871年至2008年期间平均海平面（MSL）变异性的作用。发现季节性海平面在年度变异性和趋势方面与年度平均值存在显着差异。通过比较风应力，海平面压力和降水的变化，研究了观察到差异的原因。逐步回归法用于估算不同强迫因素对海平面变化的影响。模型验证和敏感性分析表明，如果至少有60到80年的数据可用，则可以对回归系数进行强大，及时的独立估计。根据季节的不同，模型可以解释观测到的变异的54％（春季，4月至6月）至90％（冬季，1月至3月）。观测到的变化的大部分都归因于纬向风应力的变化，因此海平面压力，降水和子午风应力的贡献很小，但仍然很显着。在年代际尺度上，当地气象强迫的解释力相当弱，这表明剩余的可变性归因于北大西洋上的偏远强迫。尽管气象强迫在季节性时间序列的某些子时段中导致线性趋势，但年度长期趋势的影响较小。但是，当消除气象影响时，趋势估计的不确定性可以大大降低。如果在Cuxhaven潮汐仪上使用观测到的MSL，则小于0.5mm /年的标准误差需要55年的数据。相反，在32年后，气象校正残差达到了类似的标准误差。

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