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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Engineering >A modified probabilistic oil spill model and its application to the Dalian New Port accident
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A modified probabilistic oil spill model and its application to the Dalian New Port accident

机译：改进的概率溢油模型及其在大连新港事故中的应用

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摘要

We employ a partial-condition designated probabilistic oil spill model based on a Lagrangian particle technique to simulate the Dalian New Port oil spill accident. By correlating the model with aerial images and field observations of oil slicks on the sea surface, the model is applicable for evaluating the probability spatial scattering of the area polluted by the spilled oil. Evidence shows that multiple simulations under specified conditions fit the real distribution and behavior of oil slicks more accurately than those from fully random initial conditions. The findings suggest that the effects of seasonal variations in wind and current dynamics within tidal cycles on spill distribution should be taken into account for estimating the impact of potential oil spills in the North Yellow Sea. A statistical model that considers condition selection could enhance the reliability of risk estimation and enable the application of appropriate recovery operations in contaminated seas. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：我们采用基于拉格朗日粒子技术的局部条件指定概率溢油模型来模拟大连新港溢油事故。通过将模型与航拍图像和海面浮油的野外观测结果进行关联，该模型可用于评估被溢油污染的区域的空间散射概率。有证据表明，在特定条件下进行的多个模拟比在完全随机初始条件下的模拟更准确地拟合了浮油的真实分布和行为。研究结果表明，应将潮汐周期内风和潮流的季节性变化对溢油分布的影响考虑在内，以估计北黄海潜在溢油的影响。考虑条件选择的统计模型可以提高风险估计的可靠性，并可以在受污染的海域中进行适当的恢复操作。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2016年第15期|291-300|共10页
  • 作者

    Guo Weijun; Wu Guoxiang; Jiang Meirong; Xu Tiaojian; Yang Zhiwen; Xie Mingxiao; Chen Xiaobo;

  • 作者单位

    Dalian Maritime Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Linghai Rd 1, Dalian 116026, Peoples R China|Dalian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Coastal & Offshore Engn, Dalian 116023, Peoples R China;

    Ocean Univ China, Coll Engn, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China;

    Offshore Oil Engn Co Ltd, Tianjin 300451, Peoples R China;

    Dalian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Coastal & Offshore Engn, Dalian 116023, Peoples R China;

    MOT, Tianjin Res Inst Water Transport Engn, Key Lab Engn Sediment, Tianjin 300456, Peoples R China;

    MOT, Tianjin Res Inst Water Transport Engn, Key Lab Engn Sediment, Tianjin 300456, Peoples R China;

    Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Investment & Construct Management, Dalian 116025, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    North Yellow Sea; Dalian New Port accident; Oil spill; Probabilistic model; Preconditioning factors;

    机译：北黄海大连新港事故溢油概率模型预处理因素;

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