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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Engineering >A new approach to environmental contours for ocean engineering applications based on direct Monte Carlo simulations
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A new approach to environmental contours for ocean engineering applications based on direct Monte Carlo simulations

机译：基于直接蒙特卡洛模拟的海洋工程应用环境轮廓的新方法

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The environmental contour concept is often applied in structural ship design in conjunction with the inverse first order reliability method (IFORM). It allows the great advantage of considering the environmental loads independently of the structural response of the ship. In this way, design sea states may be identified along the contour and time consuming response calculations are only needed for a limited set of design sea states. The traditional way of establishing such environmental contour lines is by applying the Rosenblatt transformation and identify the circle (in two dimensions) with radius equal to the reliability index β_r.. The points along this circle are then transformed back to the original environmental space, specifying the closed contour. In this paper, an alternative approach for establishing environmental contour lines in the original environmental space is proposed, eliminating the need for any transformations. For a given failure probability, P_f, the resulting contour line encloses a convex region in the environmental space. For any design with a convex failure region not intersecting this region, the probability of failure is at most P_f. Thus, the contour line can be used to obtain an upper bound on the failure probabilities of a large class of designs. This approach utilizes Monte Carlo simulations of the joint environmental model and is generally found to perform well. Advantages are that it yields a more precise interpretation and allows for more flexible modeling of the environmental parameters. In addition, possible over- or underestimation of failure probabilities due to the Rosenblatt transformation inherent in the traditional approach can be avoided with the proposed method.
机译：环境轮廓概念通常与一阶逆可靠性方法（IFORM）结合用于结构船设计中。它具有很大的优势，可以独立于船的结构响应而考虑环境负荷。这样，可以沿着轮廓识别设计海况，并且仅对于有限的一组设计海况才需要耗时的响应计算。建立此类环境轮廓线的传统方法是应用Rosenblatt变换并标识半径等于可靠性指标β_r的圆（二维）。然后将沿该圆的点变换回原始环境空间，指定闭合轮廓。本文提出了一种在原始环境空间中建立环境轮廓线的替代方法，无需进行任何转换。对于给定的故障概率P_f，所得轮廓线将环境空间中的凸形区域包围起来。对于具有不与该区域相交的凸形失效区域的任何设计，失效的可能性最多为P_f。因此，轮廓线可用于获得大类设计失败概率的上限。这种方法利用了联合环境模型的蒙特卡洛模拟，并且通常被认为表现良好。优点是可以产生更精确的解释，并可以更灵活地对环境参数进行建模。此外，使用所提出的方法可以避免由于传统方法固有的Rosenblatt变换而导致的故障概率过高或过低的估计。

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