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Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise

机译：争取全球范围内海平面上升的补贴

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摘要

Allowances have been developed for future rise of relative sea-level (i.e. sea level relative to the land) based on the projections of regional sea-level rise, its uncertainty, and the statistics of tides and storm surges (storm tides). An 'allowance' is, in this case, the vertical distance that an asset needs to be raised under a rising sea level, so that the present likelihood of flooding does not increase. This continues the work of Hunter (2012), which presented allowances based on global-average sea level and local storm tides. The inclusion of regional variations of sea-level rise (and its uncertainty) significantly increases the global spread of allowances. For the period 1990-2100 and the A1FI emission scenario (which the world is broadly following at present), these range from negative allowances caused by land uplift (in the northern regions of North America and Europe) to the upper 5-percentile which is greater than about 1 m (e.g. on the eastern coastline of North America).
机译：根据区域海平面上升，其不确定性以及潮汐和风暴潮（风暴潮）的统计数据，已经为未来相对海平面（即相对于陆地的海平面）的上升制定了配额。在这种情况下，“允许”是指在海平面上升的情况下资产需要增加的垂直距离，因此当前的泛滥可能性不会增加。这延续了Hunter（2012）的工作，该工作提出了基于全球平均海平面和当地风暴潮的配额。包括海平面上升的区域变化（及其不确定性），大大增加了配额的全球分布。在1990年至2100年期间和A1FI排放情景（世界目前正在广泛关注）中，范围从因土地隆升（在北美和欧洲北部）引起的负配额到最高的5个百分点（即大于约1 m（例如在北美东部海岸线上）。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2013年第1期|17-27|共11页
  • 作者

    J.R. Hunter; J.A. Church; N.J. White; X. Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;

    Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart,Tasmania 7000, Australia;

    Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart,Tasmania 7000, Australia;

    Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart,Tasmania 7000, Australia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Sea-level rise; Storm tide; Climate change; Climate projection;

    机译：海平面上升;风暴潮;气候变化;气候预测;

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