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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Engineering >Discussion of 'Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise' by J.R. Hunter, J.A. Church, N.J. White, X. Zhang [Ocean Engineering 71 (1) 17-27 (1 October 2013)]
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Discussion of 'Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise' by J.R. Hunter, J.A. Church, N.J. White, X. Zhang [Ocean Engineering 71 (1) 17-27 (1 October 2013)]

机译:J.R. Hunter,J.A.对“争取在全球范围内改变海平面上升的配额”的讨论教堂,新泽西·怀特·张X [海洋工程71(1)17-27(2013年10月1日)]

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摘要

While nobody doubts the fact we humans are responsible for dramatic changes to our environment, it is not that clear which effect the traded anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions actually have on the climate in general, and on rising temperatures, accelerating sea levels and the occurrence of extreme events in particular. As an example, the claim sea levels are accelerating are often inferred from (1) arbitrarily selecting the subset of the measured data to be analysed (for example the less than 2 decades long tide gauges of the Pacific in Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (AGBOM) (2012a) or the less than 2 decades long tide gauges of Australia in Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (AGBOM) (2012b)), (2) arbitrarily redefining the subset of data to be analysed (for example extending and reconstructing the poor quality incomplete and short records of the Pacific tropical islands in Becker et al. (2012)), (3) arbitrarily focusing the analysis on the small windows that are instrumental to the claim and neglecting everything else (for example comparing the present 30 years sea level rises of tide gauges along the North Atlantic coast of the US with the 1980 values but not with the 1950 values in Sallenger et al. (2012)) or (4) by simply arguing that modelling the sea level as a function of the predicted temperature is superior to the standard approach of analysing the measured sea-level rise as a function of time (for example Rahmstorf and Vermeer, 2011) and similar arguments.
机译:尽管没有人怀疑我们的人类对环境的巨大变化负有责任,但目前尚不清楚人为交易的二氧化碳排放量实际上对整个气候,升高的温度,加速的海平面和极端气候的发生有哪些影响。特别是事件。例如,声称海平面正在加速的主张通常是由以下因素得出的:(1)任意选择要分析的测量数据的子集(例如,澳大利亚政府气象局(AGBOM)的太平洋潮汐计不到二十年)(2012a)或澳大利亚政府气象局(AGBOM)(2012b)中澳大利亚不到二十年的潮汐仪,(2)任意重新定义要分析的数据子集(例如扩展和重建质量差的数据) Becker等人(2012)对太平洋热带岛屿的记录不完整和简短),(3)随意地将分析重点放在对索赔有用的小窗口上,而忽略了其他所有内容(例如比较当前30年的海平面通过简单地论证将海平面建模为函数的函数,沿美国北大西洋沿岸的潮汐仪的上升沿1980年的值上升,而与Sallenger等人(2012)或(4)的1950年的值没有上升。预测温度优于分析作为时间函数的海平面上升实测的标准方法(例如Rahmstorf和Vermeer,2011年)和类似的论点。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2013年第1期|470-472|共3页
  • 作者

    T. Watson; A. Parker;

  • 作者单位

    32 Kinlock Street, North Geelong, VIC, Australia;

    RMIT University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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