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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Engineering >Storm flooding sensitivity to sea level rise for Galveston Bay, Texas
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Storm flooding sensitivity to sea level rise for Galveston Bay, Texas

机译：德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿湾的风暴洪水对海平面上升的敏感性

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The combination of sea level rise and population growth in coastal regions makes it essential to continue improving flood management strategies. Flooding estimates must take into account both local vertical land motion and estimated rates of sea level rise linked to global climate change. Several extreme value distributions are compared using multiple statistical measures for the modeling of maximum annual storm surges based on the 105-year record of Galveston Pier 21, Texas. Increases in inundation frequencies are computed based on two possible sea level rise scenarios, a conservative linear continuation of the past century trend, and a scenario based on the upper limit of the sea level range in the IPCC AR4 report, i.e. the A1FI scenario. The research shows that by the year 2100 exceedance probabilities may double for the impact of the largest storms such as Hurricane Ike, but may increase by 6-7 times for the smaller surges associated locally with the impact of storms such as Hurricanes Cindy, Alicia, and Rita. While individually not as devastating or costly as large hurricanes, the cumulative and regular cost of smaller surge events could well be a bigger threat to coastal communities as sea level rises.
机译：沿海地区海平面上升和人口增长相结合，因此必须继续改善洪水管理策略。洪水估算必须同时考虑当地的垂直陆地运动和与全球气候变化有关的海平面上升速度。根据德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿码头21年的105年记录，使用多种统计量度比较了几种极值分布，以模拟最大年度风暴潮。根据两种可能的海平面上升情景，过去一个世纪趋势的保守线性延续以及基于IPCC AR4报告中海平面范围上限的情景（即A1FI情景）来计算淹没频率的增加。研究表明，到2100年，飓风艾克等最大风暴的影响概率可能翻倍，但与飓风辛迪，艾丽西亚，和丽塔。尽管个别飓风不像大飓风那样具有破坏性或代价高昂，但随着海平面上升，较小浪潮事件的累积和定期成本很可能对沿海社区构成更大的威胁。

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