Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

J.P. Dunne; M. Winton; J. Bacmeister

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Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

机译：平板海洋，150年和更长的模拟均衡气候敏感性估算的比较

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We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO_2 simulations with shorter (150- and 300-year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1 -150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% ± 13%) and long (-14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% ± 14%) and long (-8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

机译：我们比较长（≥800年）控制和突然的四倍的CO_2模拟的平衡气候敏感度（ECS）估计，短（150-300年）耦合的大气模拟和平板海洋模型（SOM）。与以前的工作一致，ECS根据年平均值的较短耦合模拟估计数年1 -150低估来自SOM（-8％±13％）和长（-14％±8％）模拟。仅分析仅年度21-150岁的统计数据（-2％±14％）和长（-8％±10％）估算。五年来的五年级平均值51-150的使用导致改进的仿真协议（-4％±11％）。虽然ECS估计来自目前的美国模型，基于SOM的模型，耦合年平均数为1-150的年平均范围为2.6°C至5.3°C，而基于3.2°C至7.0°C的相同型号的较长模拟。方法之间的这种变化旨在谨慎，并在模型中的ECS估计的比较和解释。

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《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2108-2108|共1页
作者
J.P. Dunne; M. Winton; J. Bacmeister;
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NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ United States;

NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ United States;

NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ United States;

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1. Equilibrium climate sensitivity: is it accurate to use a slab ocean model? [J] . Danabasoglu G., Gent P. R. Journal of Climate . 2009,第9期

机译：平衡气候敏感性：使用平板海洋模型是否准确？
2. Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations [J] . Dai Aiguo, Huang Danqing, Rose Brian E. J., Climate dynamics . 2020,第11a12期

机译：从瞬态变暖模拟估算均衡气候敏感性的改进方法
3. Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models [J] . Troy Masters Climate dynamics . 2014,第7a8期

机译：通过海洋热量吸收率的变化以及与CMIP5模型的比较对气候敏感性的观测估计
4. Using non-equilibrium simulations to estimate equilibrium binding affinities [C] . F. Marty Ytreberg Mexican Meeting on Mathematical and Experimental Physics . 2008

机译：使用非均衡模拟来估计平衡结合亲和力
5. Multi-century simulations of LGM and present day climate using an accelerated coupled GCM carrying water isotope tracers, with comparisons to ocean sediment/ice cores and observations. [D] . Thresher, Duane Ethan. 2004

机译：使用加速耦合的GCM携带水同位素示踪剂对LGM和当今气候进行了多世纪的模拟，并与海洋沉积物/冰芯进行了比较和观测。
6. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation [O] . Sybren Drijfhout, Emily Gleeson, Henk A. Dijkstra, 2013

机译：在非强迫气候模型模拟中由于大气阻塞-海冰-海洋反馈而导致的自然自发突变
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

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