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Validation of risk analysis for ship collision in narrow waters by using fuzzy Bayesian networks approach

机译：采用模糊贝叶斯网络方法验证窄水域船舶碰撞风险分析

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摘要

Risk analysis is regarded as one of the most critical research topics in maritime industry due to the nature of work. Validation of risk analysis is a significant challenge for safety researchers. This paper aims to address the gap by utilising the power of Bayesian Network method under fuzzy logic environment. While Bayesian Network provides a compact representation of a joint probability distribution, fuzzy logic tackles with vagueness and ambiguity in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The validation and sensitivity analyses are performed under various conditions to improve the accuracy of findings. Three different axioms are tested to validate the results. The proposed method is applied for the risk modelling of ship collision in narrow waters. Besides its theoretical background, the paper is expected to help safety researchers validate their results. The maritime safety professionals (safety inspectors, DPAs, superintendents and ship owners) can also benefit from the paper to identify and minimise the potential risks for ship collision in narrow waters.
机译：由于工作的性质，风险分析被视为海洋行业最关键的研究主题之一。风险分析的验证是安全研究人员的重大挑战。本文旨在利用模糊逻辑环境下利用贝叶斯网络方法的力量来解决差距。虽然贝叶斯网络提供了一个紧凑的联合概率分布的表示，但PRA中具有模糊性和模糊性的模糊逻辑粘性（概率风险评估）。在各种条件下进行验证和敏感性分析，以提高调查结果的准确性。测试三个不同的公理以验证结果。所提出的方法适用于狭窄水域船舶碰撞的风险建模。除了其理论背景，该论文预计还可以帮助安全研究人员验证其结果。海事安全专业人员（安全检查员，DPA，船东和船东）也可以从本文中受益，以识别和最大限度地减少狭窄水域船舶碰撞的潜在风险。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2021年第6期|1390-1390|共1页
  • 作者

    M. Aydin; E. Akyuz; O. Turan; O. Arslan;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Marine Engineering Recep Tayyip Erdogan University Derepazar Rize 53900 Turkey;

    Department of Marine Engineering Recep Tayyip Erdogan University Derepazar Rize 53900 Turkey;

    Department of Marine Engineering Recep Tayyip Erdogan University Derepazar Rize 53900 Turkey;

    Department of Marine Engineering Recep Tayyip Erdogan University Derepazar Rize 53900 Turkey;

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