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首页> 外文期刊>Oceanography >Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: CLIMATE-RELEVANT FEATURES AND OBSERVATIONAL IMPLICATIONS
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Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: CLIMATE-RELEVANT FEATURES AND OBSERVATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

机译：海洋热量含量的混沌变异性：与气候有关的特征和观测意义

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摘要

Global ocean models that admit mesoscale turbulence spontaneously generate a substantial interannual-to-multidecadal chaotic intrinsic variability in the absence of atmospheric forcing variability at these timescales. This phenomenon is substantially weaker in non-turbulent ocean models but provides a marked stochastic flavor to the low-frequency variability in eddying ocean models, which are being coupled to the atmosphere for next-generation climate projections. In order to disentangle the atmospherically forced and intrinsic ocean variabilities, the OCCIPUT (OceaniC Chaos - ImPacts, strUcture, predicTability) project performed a long (1960-2015), large ensemble (50 members) of global ocean/sea ice 1/4 degrees simulations driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis, but with perturbed initial conditions. Subsequent ensemble statistics show that the ocean variability can be seen as a broadband "noise," with characteristic scales reaching multiple decades and basin sizes, locally modulated by the atmospheric variability. In several mid-latitude regions, chaotic processes have more impact than atmospheric variability on both the low-frequency variability and the long-term trends of regional ocean heat content. Consequently, certain climate-relevant oceanic signals cannot be unambiguously attributed to atmospheric variability, raising new issues for the detection, attribution, and interpretation of oceanic heat variability and trends in the presence of mesoscale turbulence.
机译：在这些时间尺度上没有大气强迫变化的情况下，承认中尺度湍流的全球海洋模型自发地产生了年际到数十年代际的混沌固有变化。在非湍流海洋模型中，这种现象明显较弱，但为涡流海洋模型的低频变化提供了明显的随机风味，而涡流海洋模型则与大气耦合以进行下一代气候预测。为了消除大气强迫和固有海洋变化，OCCIPUT（海洋混沌-影响，结构，可预测性）项目进行了一个漫长的（1960-2015年）大型集体（50个成员）的全球海洋/海冰1/4度由相同的大气再分析驱动的模拟，但初始条件受干扰。随后的整体统计数据表明，海洋多变性可以看作是宽带的“噪声”，其特征尺度达到数十年，盆地大小受到大气多变性的局部调节。在几个中纬度地区，混沌过程比大气的变化对低频变化和区域海洋热量含量的长期趋势的影响更大。因此，某些与气候有关的海洋信号不能明确地归因于大气的可变性，从而在中尺度湍流的存在下为探测，归因和解释海洋热变率和趋势提出了新的问题。

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