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Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy

机译：石油价格波动对印度经济的影响

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摘要

Indian economy has been facing the twin issues of mounting trade imbalance and persisting inflation. Oil constitutes one-third of the country's total imports and is considered to have wide-ranging impact on its economy. This paper empirically examines how oil price fluctuations impact Indian economy through various channels, viz. real sector, monetary policy, external trade, exchange rate and investment. The results of cyclical correlation analysis suggest that oil is pro-cyclical to output, price level, stock market, gold, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves, while it is counter-cyclical to money supply, net exports and exchange rate. Also, it is found that oil Granger causes output, general price level and net exports. The study employs vector auto-regression (VAR) analysis and examines variance decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. The structural stability tests demonstrate that there is no evidence of structural break in the VAR model, confirming the reliability of estimated relationships under the VAR model.
机译：印度经济一直面临着贸易失衡加剧和通货膨胀率持续上升的双重问题。石油占该国进口总量的三分之一，被认为对其经济产生广泛影响。本文从经验上考察了油价波动如何通过各种渠道影响印度经济。实体部门，货币政策，对外贸易，汇率和投资。周期性相关分析的结果表明，石油与产出，价格水平，股票市场，黄金，利率和外汇储备呈顺周期关系，而与货币供应，净出口和汇率呈反周期关系。此外，还发现石油格兰杰会导致产量，总体价格水平和净出口。该研究采用向量自回归（VAR）分析，并检查方差分解以捕获变量之间的线性相互依存关系。结构稳定性测试表明，VAR模型中没有结构破裂的迹象，这证实了VAR模型下估计关系的可靠性。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2015年第2期|141-161|共21页
  • 作者

    Priyanshi Gupta; Anurag Goyal;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Financial Studies, University of Delhi, South Campus, New Delhi 110021, India;

    Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, New Delhi 110007, India;

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