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Oil shocks and oil producers' growth: where did all the spending go?

机译:石油冲击和石油生产商的增长:所有支出都去了哪里?

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摘要

I use panel unit root tests and panel error correction models to examine the effects of oil windfall shocks and types of public spending on economic performance in 16 oil-producing countries over the period 1972-2008. Higher oil prices seem to reduce non-oil growth in the long run, but stimulate it in the short run. However, oil abundance may or may not become a 'curse' conditional on how the windfalls are managed. I find that the large windfalls of the 1970s and the 2000s have contributed to the slow long-run growth performance, after controlling for the composition of public spending. Public sector wages stimulated long-run non-oil growth in more oil-abundant economies; but had a negative effect in less oil-endowed countries. The large public investment programs were not effective in stimulating non-oil long-run growth; and the higher the dependency on oil, the lesser the contribution of new infrastructure investments to the non-oil sector's growth.
机译:我使用面板单位根检验和面板误差校正模型来检验1972年至2008年期间16个产油国的石油暴利冲击和公共支出类型对经济表现的影响。从长远来看,较高的石油价格似乎会减少非石油的增长,但在短期内会刺激非石油的增长。但是,石油丰收可能会也可能不会成为“诅咒”,这取决于如何管理意外收益。我发现,在控制了公共支出的构成之后,1970年代和2000年代的巨额暴利导致了缓慢的长期增长表现。公共部门的工资刺激了更多石油资源丰富的经济体的长期非石油增长;但是在石油资源匮乏的国家却产生了负面影响。大型的公共投资计划在刺激非石油长期增长方面无效。对石油的依赖程度越高,新基础设施投资对非石油部门增长的贡献就越小。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2014年第3期|243-271|共29页
  • 作者

    Amany A. El Anshasy;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, United Arab Emirates University, UAEU Maqam campus, P.O. Box 15551, Bldg. H3, Room 1044, Al-Ain, UAE,Department of Public Finance, Faculty of Commerce, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt;

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