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Time series analysis of interdependent phases of the electricity industry in South Korea

机译：韩国电力行业相互依存阶段的时间序列分析

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摘要

This study specifies and estimates a model to investigate the relationship between different phases of the electricity industry and market. These include the generation, transmission, distribution and demand segments. Common variables that explain these segments are identified and their effects estimated. Korean time series data from the period 1961 to 2008 are considered for the empirical analysis. In the study, a series of steps is conducted. First, using cointegration and causality tests, the relationships between the variables of interest are established. Second, each phase is specified as a function of its determinants. Third, the phases are then estimated as an interdependent recursive system. By using the predicted values of variables from the previous phases, a possible endogeneity problem is avoided. Fourth, a model for the forecast is specified and estimated, and the future demand predicted. Finally, based on the results, policy guidelines are suggested to improve the market structure of the industry, and measures are proposed to achieve the stated goals of the industry and market.
机译：这项研究指定并估计了一个模型，以研究电力行业和市场不同阶段之间的关系。其中包括发电，输电，配电和需求细分。确定解释这些部分的通用变量，并评估其影响。对1961-2008年韩国时间序列数据进行了实证分析。在研究中，进行了一系列步骤。首先，使用协整和因果关系检验，建立了关注变量之间的关系。其次，每个阶段都取决于其决定因素。第三，然后将阶段估计为相互依赖的递归系统。通过使用先前阶段中变量的预测值，可以避免可能的内生性问题。第四，指定并估算预测模型，并预测未来需求。最后，根据结果，提出了改善行业市场结构的政策指导方针，并提出了实现行业和市场既定目标的措施。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2012年第3期|p.319-348|共30页
  • 作者

    Almas Heshmati; Yeonhak Kim;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Food and Resource Economics, College of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, East Building, Room 217, Korea University, Anam-dong Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 136-713, Korea;

    Department of Industrial Engineering, TEMER College of Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shilim-dong, Kwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Korea;

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