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The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: case study (OPEC countries)

机译:能源消耗,能源价格与经济增长之间的关系:案例研究(欧佩克国家)

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摘要

This paper studies the causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for OPEC countries using cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. The results indicate that in the short run, the Granger causality runs from income to energy consumption for Iran, Iraq, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, while for the rest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries, the reverse is true, i.e. the Granger causality runs from energy consumption to income. However, in the long run, there is not any Granger causality relationship for all the OPEC countries. In the case of Qatar and the Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, energy, economic growth and prices are not mutually causal. Results show, that even for these countries, which the energy consumption has an effect on economic growth, the effect is very minimal. The direction of causation between energy consumption and economic growth has significant policy implications. If there exists unidirectional Granger causality running from income to energy, it may be implied that energy conservation policies may be implemented with little adverse or no effects on economic growth. In the case of negative causality running from economic growth to energy, economic growth could rise if energy conservation policy were to be implemented. In other words, if unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption to income, reducing energy consumption could lead to a fall in economic growth. One can conclude that for all of the OPEC countries, the theory of resource curse holds. Hence, substantial energy consumption is not likely to bring about significant economic growth but an increase in CO_2 emissions. In this regard, it is very important for those low-income OPEC countries to adopt appropriate energy policies in order to promote their economic growth.
机译:本文使用协整和误差校正建模技术研究了欧佩克国家能源消耗与经济增长之间的因果关系。结果表明,在短期内,伊朗,伊拉克,卡塔尔,阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯的格兰杰因果关系从收入到能源消耗,而石油输出国组织(OPEC)其余国家则相反。是正确的,即格兰杰因果关系从能源消耗到收入。但是,从长远来看,并非所有欧佩克国家都存在格兰杰因果关系。就卡塔尔,沙特阿拉伯和尼日利亚而言,能源,经济增长和价格并非互为因果。结果表明,即使对于能源消耗对经济增长有影响的这些国家,影响也很小。能源消耗与经济增长之间因果关系的方向具有重大的政策含义。如果存在从收入到能源的单向格兰杰因果关系,则可能暗示着实施节能政策对经济增长的不利影响很小或没有影响。在从经济增长到能源的消极因果关系的情况下,如果实施节能政策,经济增长可能会上升。换句话说,如果单向因果关系从能源消耗转化为收入,减少能源消耗可能会导致经济增长下降。可以得出结论,对于所有欧佩克国家,资源诅咒理论都成立。因此,大量的能源消耗不可能带来显着的经济增长,但是会增加CO_2排放量。在这方面,欧佩克低收入国家采取适当的能源政策以促进其经济增长非常重要。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2012年第3期|p.272-286|共15页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, University of Tehran, Kargar-e-Shomali, Tehran, Iran;

    Economics, Department of Economics, University of Tehran, North Kargar, Tehran, Iran;

    Economics, Department of Economics, University of Tehran, North Kargar, Tehran, Iran;

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