Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns

Gary L. Shoesmith

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Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns

机译：国家和州制造业和建筑业就业低迷的Probit模型预测

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This study extends Shoesmith (2003) by generating probit model forecasts of downturns in national and state manufacturing and construction employment, using average weekly hours in manufacturing (HRS) and housing permits (HP), respectively, as explanatory variables. In each case the yield spread (SPREAD) is used as an alternative to HRS or HP. The expected result is that HRS and HP are more effective than SPREAD in forecasting downturns in related sectors of employment. However, the estimation and forecast results for the nation and 50 states show that SPREAD is in general more useful than HRS and HP, primarily because of the short lead times provided by the leading indicators.

机译：这项研究通过使用概率平均预测小时数（HRS）和住房许可（HP）生成国家和州制造业和建筑业就业下滑的概率模型预测，扩展了Shoesmith（2003）。在每种情况下，收益率差（SPREAD）都可以替代HRS或HP。预期结果是，HRS和HP在预测相关就业部门的下滑方面比SPREAD更有效。但是，美国和50个州的估计和预测结果表明，SPREAD通常比HRS和HP更有用，这主要是因为领先指标提供的交货时间短。

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来源
《Papers in regional science》 |2005年第4期|p.531-552|共22页
作者
Gary L. Shoesmith;
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作者单位

Babcock Graduate School of Management, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109 USA;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类区域规划、城乡规划;
关键词
probit modeling; business cycles; leading indicators; yield spreads;

机译：概率模型;商业周期;领先指标;收益率差;

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Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns

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