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The Key Role of Technology Policy in the Future of U.S. Manufacturing

机译：技术政策在美国制造业未来中的关键作用

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With some regularity since at least the Great Depression, Americans have been beset by doubts and fears regarding the future of domestic manufacturing. Will it follow the same path as agriculture? Will it run out of ideas? Will it price itself out of world markets? From the near despair about growth and fear of "over-investment" following the Depression, to the panic about the Japanese and Asian Tiger challenge of the 1970s, to the current, almost subconscious, dread about rising competition from China and India, the ability to support good jobs and provide steady returns to capital in this sector have come into question. In the wake of the current forty-month recession in job creation and loss of global market share, the doubts have taken on political salience as well. Emblematic of this sentiment is the apparent agnosticism of Alan Greenspan and other economists to the continued strength of domestically-based manufacturing as a factor in future prosperity. In a July 2003 appearance before Congress, Greenspan was asked with some persistence if he thought it "important for an economy to have manufacturing." His response was: "If there is no concern about access to foreign producers of manufactured goods, then I think you can argue it does not really matter if you make them. Apart from the obvious, painful, and very high transition costs to both blue―and white-collar workers as the sector continues to bleed jobs, does it really matter to the economic future of the country if manufacturing continues its slow relative decline of the past three years? There is reason to believe that it does. And it also matters to our national security.
机译：至少自从大萧条以来，美国人一直保持一定的规律性，对国内制造业的未来充满怀疑和恐惧。它会遵循与农业相同的道路吗？它会耗尽想法吗？它会在世界市场之外定价吗？从对经济增长的近乎绝望和对大萧条后的“过度投资”的恐惧，到对1970年代日本和亚洲虎的挑战的恐慌，到当前几乎潜意识中的对来自中国和印度的竞争日益加剧的恐惧，在这个部门支持良好的工作并提供稳定的资本回报已经受到质疑。在当前四个月的就业机会衰退和全球市场份额下降之后，人们对政治上的关注也产生了怀疑。这种情绪的体现是艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）和其他经济学家的明显不可知论点，他们认为国内制造业的持续实力是未来繁荣的一个因素。在2003年7月在国会上露面的时候，格林斯潘坚持不懈地被问到他是否认为“对一个拥有制造业的经济体很重要”。他的回答是：“如果不担心与外国制造产品的生产者接触，那么我认为可以辩称，制造它们并不重要。除了向蓝色和蓝色过渡的明显，痛苦和非常高的过渡成本外“以及随着白领阶层继续流失工作，如果制造业在过去三年中持续缓慢地相对下滑，对国家的经济未来真的有影响吗？我们有理由相信这一点。对我们的国家安全至关重要。

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