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Understanding the risk of going missing: estimating the risk of fatal outcomes in cancelled cases

机译:了解失踪的风险:估计取消案例中致命结果的风险

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to improve the police, policy makers' and researchers' understanding of the likelihood of fatal outcomes befalling missing persons. Design/methodology/approach - Data on the age, sex, duration missing and outcome (fatal or non-fatal) of over 32,000 cancelled reports of missing persons were extracted from a police database of missing persons in the London metropolitan area. The analysis highlights the risk of a cancelled missing person report resulting in a fatal outcome by the same variables. Findings - Shows that the risk of a cancelled missing person report resulting in a fatal outcome is overall very low, though it does increase with the age of the person reported missing and the duration they remain missing for. Males face a higher risk of being found dead than females. Research limitations/implications - The risk estimations use a base rate of all cancelled missing person reports, therefore excluding persons who have never being found. The estimations are based on missing person reports rather than individuals. Insufficient detail was available to analyse the fatal cases by type of death (e.g. suicide, homicide, accident, etc.). Originality/value - This paper provides new empirical evidence on what happens to people reported missing. The findings provide an actuarial context in which clinical risk assessment by police officers can take place.
机译:目的-本文的目的是增进警察,政策制定者和研究人员对致命结果落在失踪人员身上的认识。设计/方法/方法-从伦敦市区的失踪人员警察数据库中提取了32,000多个失踪人员的年龄,性别,失踪持续时间和结果(致命或非致命)数据。该分析突出显示了由于相同变量而导致失踪人员报告被取消导致致命结果的风险。调查结果-表明,失踪人员举报被取消导致致命结果的风险总体来说非常低,尽管随着失踪人员年龄和失踪持续时间的增加,风险确实会增加。男性比女性面临更高的死亡风险。研究局限/含义-风险估算使用所有已取消失踪人员报告的基本费率,因此排除了从未找到的人。估计是基于失踪人员报告而不是个人。没有足够的细节来按死亡类型(例如自杀,杀人,事故等)分析致命病例。原创性/价值-本文为报告失踪人员的遭遇提供了新的经验证据。调查结果为精算背景提供了依据,可以进行警官的临床风险评估。

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