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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Geophysica Polonica >RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN WATER MANAGEMENT
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RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN WATER MANAGEMENT

机译：水管理中的风险和不确定性

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摘要

Risk and uncertainty are intrinsic in water resources decision making. This is hardly surprising when in water management the primary concerns are hydrological phenomena of essentially random nature. The estimation of flood and drought hazards present examples of application of mathematical methods in water resources practice. Water resources data are observational rather than experimental: there is no possibility to repeat an experiment of a particularly destructive flood or a prolonged drought. Series of observed hydrological data are in most cases relatively small, which leads to uncertainties in the results of statistical calculations. Consequently, water management decision has to be taken under uncertain circumstances. The following issues are discussed in the paper: (1) role of stochastic models in hydrological predictions, (2) uncertainties in assessing flood risks, and (3) sensitivity of droughts to climate change.
机译：风险和不确定性是水资源决策中固有的。当在水管理中主要关注的是本质上是随机性质的水文现象时，这不足为奇。洪水和干旱灾害的估计提供了数学方法在水资源实践中的应用实例。水资源数据是观察性的，而不是实验性的：不可能重复进行特别破坏性洪水或长期干旱的试验。在大多数情况下，观测到的水文数据系列相对较小，这导致统计计算结果的不确定性。因此，必须在不确定的情况下做出水管理决定。本文讨论了以下问题：（1）随机模型在水文预测中的作用；（2）在评估洪水风险中的不确定性；（3）干旱对气候变化的敏感性。

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